The AI Speedometer — per-expert placement classifications
type: Dataset
description: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
is accessible for free: true
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
potential action: Query the AI Speedometer panel
  type: SearchAction
  description: Query the live panel through the deslop.media MCP connector — find experts by stance (find_experts), query a named expert's recorded positions (query_expert), or check coverage on a question (check_coverage). A reading of recorded positions, not a verdict on whether any statement is true, and not a forecast.
  target: EntryPoint
    url template: https://api.deslop.media/mcp
    content type: application/json
    action platform: https://schema.org/MCP
  tool: find_experts
  tool: query_expert
  tool: check_coverage
  query-input: required name=expert_or_question
  query-input: required name=tool options=find_experts|query_expert|check_coverage
has part: Observation
  observation date: 2025-02-24
  variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
  value: Weak Deny
  observation about: Claim
    text: I don't think that GI is achievable, at least not in the next five to ten years. I don't see any of these models reasoning at the level of humans for now.
    author: Daron Acemoglu
      type: Person
      job title: labor economist
    appearance: CreativeWork
      date published: 2025-02-24
      publisher: moneyweek.com
  additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-stance-classification
    value: Weak Deny
    description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
  additional property: source verification status
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-source-status
    value: resolved
    description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
  creator: deslop.media
  publisher: deslop.media
  is based on: https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains
  disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
  keywords: AI scenarios
  keywords: deny
  keywords: Weak Deny
  keywords: C1.0
  source status: resolved
has part: Observation
  observation date: 2025-02-24
  variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
  value: Weak Deny
  observation about: Claim
    text: I don't think that GI is achievable, at least not in the next five to ten years. I don't see any of these models reasoning at the level of humans for now.
    author: Daron Acemoglu
      type: Person
      job title: labor economist
    appearance: CreativeWork
      date published: 2025-02-24
      publisher: moneyweek.com
  additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-stance-classification
    value: Weak Deny
    description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
  additional property: source verification status
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-source-status
    value: resolved
    description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
  creator: deslop.media
  publisher: deslop.media
  is based on: https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains
  disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
  keywords: AI scenarios
  keywords: deny
  keywords: Weak Deny
  keywords: C1.1
  source status: resolved
has part: Observation
  observation date: 2025-02-24
  variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
  value: Strong Deny
  observation about: Claim
    text: I don't think that GI is achievable, at least not in the next five to ten years. I don't see any of these models reasoning at the level of humans for now.
    author: Daron Acemoglu
      type: Person
      job title: labor economist
    appearance: CreativeWork
      date published: 2025-02-24
      publisher: moneyweek.com
  additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-stance-classification
    value: Strong Deny
    description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
  additional property: source verification status
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-source-status
    value: resolved
    description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
  creator: deslop.media
  publisher: deslop.media
  is based on: https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains
  disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
  keywords: AI scenarios
  keywords: deny
  keywords: Strong Deny
  keywords: C1.2
  source status: resolved
has part: Observation
  observation date: 2026-05-11
  variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
  value: Strong Deny
  observation about: Claim
    text: I think that's just a losing proposition
    author: Daron Acemoglu
      type: Person
      job title: labor economist
    appearance: CreativeWork
      date published: 2026-05-11
      publisher: technologyreview.com
  additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-stance-classification
    value: Strong Deny
    description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
  additional property: source verification status
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-source-status
    value: resolved
    description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
  creator: deslop.media
  publisher: deslop.media
  is based on: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/05/11/1137090/three-things-in-ai-to-watch-according-to-a-nobel-winning-economist/
  disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
  keywords: AI scenarios
  keywords: deny
  keywords: Strong Deny
  keywords: C1.3
  source status: resolved
has part: Observation
  observation date: 2025-02-24
  variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
  value: Weak Hold
  observation about: Claim
    text: I think people are reading too much into Stargate, because even before it was announced the planned investments in the AI sector were massive, and they are going to continue that way, which is all part of the hype.
    author: Daron Acemoglu
      type: Person
      job title: labor economist
    appearance: CreativeWork
      date published: 2025-02-24
      publisher: moneyweek.com
  additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-stance-classification
    value: Weak Hold
    description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
  additional property: source verification status
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-source-status
    value: resolved
    description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
  creator: deslop.media
  publisher: deslop.media
  is based on: https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains
  disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
  keywords: AI scenarios
  keywords: hold
  keywords: Weak Hold
  keywords: C2.0
  source status: resolved
has part: Observation
  observation date: 2025-02-24
  variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
  value: Weak Hold
  observation about: Claim
    text: I think people are reading too much into Stargate, because even before it was announced the planned investments in the AI sector were massive, and they are going to continue that way, which is all part of the hype.
    author: Daron Acemoglu
      type: Person
      job title: labor economist
    appearance: CreativeWork
      date published: 2025-02-24
      publisher: moneyweek.com
  additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-stance-classification
    value: Weak Hold
    description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
  additional property: source verification status
    type: PropertyValue
    property ID: deslop-source-status
    value: resolved
    description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
  creator: deslop.media
  publisher: deslop.media
  is based on: https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains
  disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
  keywords: AI scenarios
  keywords: hold
  keywords: Weak Hold
  keywords: C2.5
  source status: resolved

deslop.media
type: Organization

Observation
observation date: 2025-02-24
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: While I don't know the answer to that right now, what I can say is that the industry itself is wasting a lot of money. It has put close to a trillion dollars into the hardware, without seeing any of the breakthroughs that people were hoping for.
  author: Daron Acemoglu
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-02-24
    publisher: moneyweek.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-11
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: We have not seen the development of apps based on AI that have the same usability
  author: Daron Acemoglu
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-11
    publisher: technologyreview.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/05/11/1137090/three-things-in-ai-to-watch-according-to-a-nobel-winning-economist/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-20
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I don't expect any occupation that we have today to have been eliminated in five or 10 years' time.
  author: Daron Acemoglu
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-20
    publisher: businesstoday.in
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/dont-be-taken-by-the-hype-mit-economist-says-ai-likely-to-impact-just-5-of-jobs-485407-2025-07-20
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-02-24
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: What's more, the tasks that AI is set to replace are much more geographically and occupationally dispersed, so you won't have a specific group that gets decimated.
  author: Daron Acemoglu
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-02-24
    publisher: moneyweek.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-02-24
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: What's more, the tasks that AI is set to replace are much more geographically and occupationally dispersed, so you won't have a specific group that gets decimated.
  author: Daron Acemoglu
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-02-24
    publisher: moneyweek.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-02-25
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I don't think complementary uses of AI will miraculously appear by themselves unless the industry devotes significant energy and time to them
  author: Daron Acemoglu
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-02-25
    publisher: technologyreview.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/02/25/1111207/a-nobel-laureate-on-the-economics-of-artificial-intelligence/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-10
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We are past the event horizon; the takeoff has started. Humanity is close to building digital superintelligence
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-10
    publisher: blog.samaltman.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-10
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have recently built systems that are smarter than people in many ways
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-10
    publisher: blog.samaltman.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-10
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: 2025 has seen the arrival of agents that can do real cognitive work; writing computer code will never be the same.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-10
    publisher: blog.samaltman.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-10
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: 2025 has seen the arrival of agents that can do real cognitive work; writing computer code will never be the same.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-10
    publisher: blog.samaltman.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-01-06
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-01-06
    publisher: blog.samaltman.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-01-21
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI can only fulfill its promise if we build the compute to power it.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-01-21
    publisher: cnn.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/21/tech/openai-oracle-softbank-trump-ai-investment
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-08
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I can't think of anything more important than energy chips and all the other infrastructure.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-08
    publisher: techpolicy.press
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-sam-altman-testifies-at-us-senate-hearing-on-ai-competitiveness/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-01
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: well over 1 million GPUs
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-01
    publisher: tomshardware.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/sam-altman-teases-100-million-gpu-scale-for-openai-that-could-cost-usd3-trillion-chatgpt-maker-to-cross-well-over-1-million-by-end-of-year
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-06
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: looking at commitments of about $1.4 trillion over the next eight years
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-06
    publisher: calcalistech.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/h1pz00u5ywx
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-06
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We expect to end this year above $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate and grow to hundreds of billion by 2030.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-06
    publisher: calcalistech.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/h1pz00u5ywx
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-01
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the API grew faster for us this year than even ChatGPT
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-01
    publisher: cnbc.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/sam-altman-says-openai-will-top-20-billion-annual-revenue-this-year.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-06
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We expect to end this year above $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate and grow to hundreds of billion by 2030.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-06
    publisher: calcalistech.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/h1pz00u5ywx
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-01
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have more than a million enterprise users, but we have absolutely rapid adoption of the API.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-01
    publisher: capitalaidaily.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.capitalaidaily.com/sam-altman-says-openai-enterprise-growth-outpaced-consumer-this-year-with-1000000-users/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I can easily imagine a world where 30 to 40% of the tasks that happen in the economy today get done by AI in the not very distant future
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/09/47905175/openais-altman-foresees-ai-replacing-40-of-work-tasks-soon
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-26
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I'm delighted to be wrong about this, I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than has actually happened.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-26
    publisher: ibtimes.co.uk
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/openai-ceo-sam-altman-admits-misjudgment-ai-impact-jobs-1799064
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-26
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I'm delighted to be wrong about this, I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than has actually happened.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-26
    publisher: time.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://time.com/article/2026/05/26/sam-altman-ai-job-losses-openAI-/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-10
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away, but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we'll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-10
    publisher: blog.samaltman.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-08
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think some policy is good. I think it is easy for it to go too far.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-08
    publisher: techpolicy.press
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-sam-altman-testifies-at-us-senate-hearing-on-ai-competitiveness/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-08
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I think that would be disastrous.
  author: Sam Altman
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-08
    publisher: techpolicy.press
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-sam-altman-testifies-at-us-senate-hearing-on-ai-competitiveness/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-13
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Broadly speaking, the exponential of the underlying technology has gone about as I expected it to go.
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-13
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-13
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We're seeing the same scaling in RL that we saw for pre-training.
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-13
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-10
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-10
    publisher: educationnext.in
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.educationnext.in/posts/ai-and-the-future-of-coding-insights-from-dario-amodei-on-a-rapidly-changing-landscape
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-13
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We may get to the point in a year or two where the models can just do SWE end-to-end. That's a whole task.
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-13
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-22
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Everyone's always looking for these hard blocks on what [AI] can do. They're nowhere to be seen.
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-22
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2025/05/22/anthropic-ceo-claims-ai-models-hallucinate-less-than-humans
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-13
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The amount of compute the industry is building this year is probably, call it, 10-15 gigawatts. It goes up by roughly 3x a year. So next year's 30-40 gigawatts. 2028 might be 100 gigawatts.
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-13
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-06
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We had planned for a world of 10x growth per year. In the first quarter of this year, if you were to annualize it, we saw 80x growth per year — in revenue and usage.
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-06
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/had-planned-for-10x-growth-but-saw-80x-annualized-growth-this-quarter-anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-13
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In 2023, it was zero to $100 million. In 2024, it was $100 million to $1 billion. In 2025, it was $1 billion to $9-10 billion.
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-13
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-06
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We had planned for a world of 10x growth per year. In the first quarter of this year, if you were to annualize it, we saw 80x growth per year — in revenue and usage.
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-06
    publisher: venturebeat.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://venturebeat.com/technology/anthropic-says-it-hit-a-30-billion-revenue-run-rate-after-crazy-80x-growth
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-13
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Broadly speaking, the exponential of the underlying technology has gone about as I expected it to go.
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-13
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-01
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI may also act as a more general economic substitute for human cognitive abilities than previous technologies have
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-01
    publisher: darioamodei.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://darioamodei.com/post/policy-on-the-ai-exponential
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-28
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: We, as the producers of this technology, have a duty and an obligation to be honest about what is coming.
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-28
    publisher: yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-ceo-warns-ai-could-152758674.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-05
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: If you automate 90% of the job, then everyone does the 10% of the job. And the 10% kind of expands to be 100%.
  author: Dario Amodei
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-05
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/05/05/dario-amodei-jevons-paradox-will-ai-wipe-out-white-collar-jobs/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Financing for the Abilene project includes $9.6B of debt from JPMorgan and $5B of equity from Crusoe and Blue Owl
  author: Jan-Erik Asplund
    type: Person
    job title: Sacra co-founder, private-markets research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: sacra.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sacra.com/c/crusoe/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: ARR hit $106M in June 2025, up 6.6x from $16M at the end of 2024
  author: Jan-Erik Asplund
    type: Person
    job title: Sacra co-founder, private-markets research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: sacra.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sacra.com/research/replit-at-106m-arr/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: OpenAI has committed to over $500B in disclosed cloud capacity across multiple providers.
  author: Jan-Erik Asplund
    type: Person
    job title: Sacra co-founder, private-markets research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: sacra.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sacra.com/research/openai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: OpenAI hit $25B in annualized revenue in February 2026, up from $20B at the end of 2025.
  author: Jan-Erik Asplund
    type: Person
    job title: Sacra co-founder, private-markets research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: sacra.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sacra.com/research/openai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Enterprise has become a meaningful share of the mix, representing more than 40% of revenue.
  author: Jan-Erik Asplund
    type: Person
    job title: Sacra co-founder, private-markets research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: sacra.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sacra.com/research/openai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: OpenAI posted a 33% gross margin, constrained by inference costs that reached $8.4B in 2025.
  author: Jan-Erik Asplund
    type: Person
    job title: Sacra co-founder, private-markets research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: sacra.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sacra.com/research/openai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Ground zero from the shift in SaaS from per-seat pricing ($50-150/seat/month) to outcome-based pricing (~$0.99-$1.50/resolution)
  author: Jan-Erik Asplund
    type: Person
    job title: Sacra co-founder, private-markets research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: sacra.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sacra.com/research/ai-support-agents-vs-help-desk-saas/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Going from $1M ARR to $100M ARR in 12 months, Cursor is the fastest growing SaaS company of all time
  author: Jan-Erik Asplund
    type: Person
    job title: Sacra co-founder, private-markets research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: sacra.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sacra.com/research/cursor-at-100m-arr/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In companies, such AI agents could cut down the need for junior administrative work or customer support roles, effectively shifting spending from human labor to AI services.
  author: Jan-Erik Asplund
    type: Person
    job title: Sacra co-founder, private-markets research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: sacra.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sacra.com/c/openai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-13
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: And I think automation, not only is it overrated, it's also over-promised. It doesn't usually happen nearly as fast as the people designing the tools think that it will.
  author: David Autor
    type: Person
    job title: academic labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-13
    publisher: issues.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://issues.org/david-autor-economist-ai-future-work/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-20
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The unique opportunity that AI offers to the labor market is to extend the relevance, reach, and value of human expertise.
  author: David Autor
    type: Person
    job title: academic labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-20
    publisher: cepr.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://cepr.org/multimedia/expertise-ai-and-work-future-keynote-lecture-david-autor
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-13
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: But even more fundamentally, let's say a million jobs are destroyed, and a million are created. The people who are taking the new work are not usually the people displaced from the old work.
  author: David Autor
    type: Person
    job title: academic labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-13
    publisher: issues.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://issues.org/david-autor-economist-ai-future-work/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-13
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The concern is not about us running out of jobs per se. In fact, we're running out of workers.
  author: David Autor
    type: Person
    job title: academic labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-13
    publisher: issues.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://issues.org/david-autor-economist-ai-future-work/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-19
variable measured: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Today no gigawatt-scale data centers exist; by the end of 2026 American companies will control nearly half a dozen such facilities (in addition to multi-hundred-megawatt facilities coming online throughout the year as well).
  author: Dean W. Ball
    type: Person
    job title: Dean W. Ball
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-19
    publisher: hyperdimensional.co
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.hyperdimensional.co/p/dice-in-the-air
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-19
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I do not currently expect California to pass any new frontier AI legislation in the coming year, but they are very likely to pass kids safety and other consumer protection laws that will affect frontier AI systems nonetheless.
  author: Dean W. Ball
    type: Person
    job title: Dean W. Ball
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-19
    publisher: hyperdimensional.co
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.hyperdimensional.co/p/dice-in-the-air
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-19
variable measured: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I do not currently expect California to pass any new frontier AI legislation in the coming year, but they are very likely to pass kids safety and other consumer protection laws that will affect frontier AI systems nonetheless.
  author: Dean W. Ball
    type: Person
    job title: Dean W. Ball
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-19
    publisher: hyperdimensional.co
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.hyperdimensional.co/p/dice-in-the-air
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-29
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI agents, Beer says, will change the way one thinks about work, the tasks to complete that work, how to break those tasks down, the tasks the bank is comfortable automating, the tasks that require human reflection, and then the proper technology ecosystem with the proper security, resiliency, and controls.
  author: Lori Beer
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise cio financial services buyer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-29
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/04/29/capcom-virgin-voyages-bet-on-ai-to-reshape-gaming-and-cruise-travel/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have been focusing very early on, on simple things, like what's the right level to create an agent; how do you give them identity and access?
  author: Lori Beer
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise cio financial services buyer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fintechmagazine.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fintechmagazine.com/tech-ai/lori-beer-jpmorgan-chase-co-leading-tech-innovation
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-01
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The investments we're making in tech are creating real value for the firm.
  author: Lori Beer
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise cio financial services buyer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-01
    publisher: americanbanker.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.americanbanker.com/news/chases-lori-beer-is-8-on-the-most-innovative-people-in-finance-ranking
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-14
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Success is transforming and creating value with AI, not just incremental steps.
  author: Lori Beer
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise cio financial services buyer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-14
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-credits-ai-coding-assistant-161026020.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-14
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We've grown fast, but now we're optimizing what we've got.
  author: Lori Beer
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise cio financial services buyer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-14
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-credits-ai-coding-assistant-161026020.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-14
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Success is transforming and creating value with AI, not just incremental steps.
  author: Lori Beer
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise cio financial services buyer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-14
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-credits-ai-coding-assistant-161026020.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We now have over 9,500 paid Agentforce deals and 3.2 trillion tokens processed, underscoring our leadership in building the Agentic Enterprise and driving real outcomes.
  author: Marc Benioff
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise incumbent
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: salesforce.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2025/12/03/fy26-q3-earnings/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-26
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI is doing 30% to 50% of the work at Salesforce
  author: Marc Benioff
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise incumbent
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-26
    publisher: cnbc.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/26/ai-salesforce-benioff.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Our Agentforce and Data 360 products are the momentum drivers, hitting nearly $1.4 billion in ARR—an explosive 114% year-over-year gain.
  author: Marc Benioff
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise incumbent
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: salesforce.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2025/12/03/fy26-q3-earnings/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We now have over 9,500 paid Agentforce deals and 3.2 trillion tokens processed, underscoring our leadership in building the Agentic Enterprise and driving real outcomes.
  author: Marc Benioff
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise incumbent
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: salesforce.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2025/12/03/fy26-q3-earnings/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Agentforce accounts in production grew 70% quarter over quarter
  author: Marc Benioff
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise incumbent
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: salesforce.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2025/12/03/fy26-q3-earnings/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-01
variable measured: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: This looks like it's anywhere from a few trillion to 12 trillion
  author: Marc Benioff
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise incumbent
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-01
    publisher: fool.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.fool.com/data-news/2025/03/14/benioff-digital-labor-creating-12t-opportunity/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Our Agentforce and Data 360 products are the momentum drivers, hitting nearly $1.4 billion in ARR—an explosive 114% year-over-year gain.
  author: Marc Benioff
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise incumbent
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: salesforce.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2025/12/03/fy26-q3-earnings/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: much bigger than software
  author: Marc Benioff
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise incumbent
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43999577/salesforce-aims-beyond-crm-bets-big-on-digital-labor-revolution-as-ceo-predicts-up-to-12-trillion-market
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-01
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: it's not going to be some huge mass layoff of white-collar workers, it is a radical augmentation of the workforce
  author: Marc Benioff
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise incumbent
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-01
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marc-benioff-says-narrative-ai-094301141.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-01
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: it's not going to be some huge mass layoff of white-collar workers, it is a radical augmentation of the workforce
  author: Marc Benioff
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise incumbent
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-01
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marc-benioff-says-narrative-ai-094301141.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Looking backwards, we have been tripling our compute every single year for the past couple years, and we've also tripled our revenue.
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/gdp-growth-will-be-driven-by-amount-of-compute-available-for-a-country-openai-president-greg-brockman/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we have line of sight to much better models coming this year
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: bigtechnology.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: he gives it a design doc, it actually implements it, adds metrics, observability, runs the profiler, improves it
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: bigtechnology.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: you become this CEO of a fleet of hundreds of thousands of agents that are completing your objectives
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: bigtechnology.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Certainly within a year, sometimes much sooner, it's going to be incredibly reliable
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: bigtechnology.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Stargate is a step towards meeting the demand of the compute-powered economy
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/gdb/status/2045279841482928271
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we are not even going to have enough compute to fund those two things
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: bigtechnology.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-05
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: OpenAI to Spend $50 Billion on Computing in 2026, Brockman Says
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-05
    publisher: bloomberg.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/openai-to-spend-50-billion-on-computing-in-2026-brockman-says
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we have been tripling our compute every single year for the past couple years, and we've also tripled our revenue.
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/gdp-growth-will-be-driven-by-amount-of-compute-available-for-a-country-openai-president-greg-brockman/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we have been tripling our compute every single year for the past couple years, and we've also tripled our revenue.
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/gdp-growth-will-be-driven-by-amount-of-compute-available-for-a-country-openai-president-greg-brockman/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we are not even going to have enough compute to fund those two things
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: bigtechnology.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: intent can now be converted directly into software, spreadsheets, presentations, workflows, science and companies
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/04/51824967/openais-greg-brockman-envisions-compute-powered-economy-as-ai-transforms-work-entrepreneurship
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: intent can now be converted directly into software, spreadsheets, presentations, workflows, science and companies
  author: Greg Brockman
    type: Person
    job title: OpenAI president and co-founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/04/51824967/openais-greg-brockman-envisions-compute-powered-economy-as-ai-transforms-work-entrepreneurship
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-20
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Less than 1 year ago frontier AI models were at IMO gold-level performance. I expect this pace of progress to continue.
  author: Noam Brown
    type: Person
    job title: inference time compute researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-20
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2057177432717656539
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-20
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Less than 1 year ago frontier AI models were at IMO gold-level performance. I expect this pace of progress to continue.
  author: Noam Brown
    type: Person
    job title: inference time compute researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-20
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2057177432717656539
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-19
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We developed new techniques that make LLMs a lot better at hard-to-verify tasks. IMO problems were the perfect challenge for this: proofs are pages long and take experts hours to grade.
  author: Noam Brown
    type: Person
    job title: inference time compute researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-19
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1946478249187377206
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-19
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I would say basically anything that I would normally try to code up, I try to do it with Codex first.
  author: Noam Brown
    type: Person
    job title: inference time compute researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-19
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/noam-brown
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-19
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think that O3 is not where the technology will be in six months.
  author: Noam Brown
    type: Person
    job title: inference time compute researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-19
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/noam-brown
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-13
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Recent discussion coincides with rapid improvements in AI capabilities and adoption. From 2023 to 2024, AI systems improved from solving 4.4% of coding problems to 71.7% on SWE-Bench, a widely used benchmark for software engineering
  author: Erik Brynjolfsson
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-13
    publisher: digitaleconomy.stanford.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-13
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI has also improved in areas like language understanding, subject knowledge, and reasoning. A recent paper found that current systems could match or outperform up to 47 percent of industry professionals on a pre-defined benchmark of economically valuable tasks
  author: Erik Brynjolfsson
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-13
    publisher: digitaleconomy.stanford.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-13
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI has also improved in areas like language understanding, subject knowledge, and reasoning. A recent paper found that current systems could match or outperform up to 47 percent of industry professionals on a pre-defined benchmark of economically valuable tasks
  author: Erik Brynjolfsson
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-13
    publisher: digitaleconomy.stanford.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-15
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: a small cohort of power users
  author: Erik Brynjolfsson
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-15
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/02/15/ai-productivity-liftoff-doubling-2025-jobs-report-transition-harvest-phase-j-curve/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-13
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Early-career workers (ages 22-25) in AI-exposed occupations experienced 16% relative employment declines, controlling for firm-level shocks, while employment for experienced workers remained stable.
  author: Erik Brynjolfsson
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-13
    publisher: digitaleconomy.stanford.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-13
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Our second key fact is that overall employment continues to grow robustly, but employment growth for young workers has been stagnant since late 2022.
  author: Erik Brynjolfsson
    type: Person
    job title: labor economist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-13
    publisher: digitaleconomy.stanford.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: 2026 will either be the year where a lot of this new capacity comes online...or it will be the year when many of these construction projects begin to face delays.
  author: David Cahn
    type: Person
    job title: Sequoia Capital partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: dcahn.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-13
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The concept of GW is being used to reflect that power is the new constraint on data centers, rather than money.
  author: David Cahn
    type: Person
    job title: Sequoia Capital partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-13
    publisher: dcahn.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dcahn.substack.com/p/circular-deals-and-supply-chain-dynamics
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: the TSMC constraint could become material in 2026.
  author: David Cahn
    type: Person
    job title: Sequoia Capital partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: dcahn.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-06
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Labs are taking all their profits and capital and plowing them right back into new data centers.
  author: David Cahn
    type: Person
    job title: Sequoia Capital partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-06
    publisher: dcahn.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-capex-now-hinges-on-deus-ex-machina
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The area where I do not expect to see any delays is in AI adoption itself. The fading of hype will have little impact on fundamentals.
  author: David Cahn
    type: Person
    job title: Sequoia Capital partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: dcahn.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-06
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: ChatGPT has continued its epic rise to north of $12B in run-rate revenue, Anthropic has reached $5B+ in run-rate revenue in a meteoric rise, and there's a new club of companies scaling quickly from $0 to $100M in revenue.
  author: David Cahn
    type: Person
    job title: Sequoia Capital partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-06
    publisher: dcahn.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-capex-now-hinges-on-deus-ex-machina
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Big enterprises are struggling to implement AI in-house, which is leading to fatigue and disappointment.
  author: David Cahn
    type: Person
    job title: Sequoia Capital partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: dcahn.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI app companies are also riding a compute cost curve that should drive incremental margin improvement, especially as new data centers come online between now and 2030.
  author: David Cahn
    type: Person
    job title: Sequoia Capital partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: dcahn.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: If anything, the best startups are growing faster than ever from $0 to $100M in revenue.
  author: David Cahn
    type: Person
    job title: Sequoia Capital partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: dcahn.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Examples of improved capabilities are everywhere, including the first chart below combining performance scores across 10 different benchmarks.
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Look how rapidly most models improved in 2025 in solving real world GitHub issues, particularly Google’s
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: OpenAI’s o3 achieved a rating better than 99% of human competitors in Codeforces coding competitions
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: the share of incorrect responses out of all questions asked; some of these hallucination rates are shockingly high
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: This year looks to be another version of 2025: a 10%-15% correction at some point due to profit-taking and a growth scare, but then equity markets end the year higher than where they began.
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Given combined cycle turbine delays, grid interconnection bottlenecks, wildly overly optimistic timetables for small modular reactors and nuclear fusion and limited opportunities to recommission shuttered but still viable nuclear fission plants, energy may be a significant constraint on AI
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The market cap of four hyperscalers and the semiconductor ecosystem companies they rely on has grown from $3 trillion to $18 trillion in just a few years
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Even after accounting for the Q4 surge in AI-related debt, many AI companies have net debt to cash flow ratios less than zero since cash and securities exceed total debt
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Will all this investment eventually result in commensurate profits? If not, moat companies could face a version of the Metaverse reckoning that took place in 2022 when the Mag7 stocks fell in half.
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Microsoft’s inference business: fastest line in the business history to reach a US$10 bn revenue run rate, with growth constrained by a lack of available compute capacity
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Despite $30-$40 bn in enterprise investment in genAI, 95% of organizations are getting zero return
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: But at a market-wide level, so far only the AI infrastructure providers have generated substantial excess returns. Baskets of companies presumed to benefit from selling AI products and/or lower labor costs have been flat to the equal weighted S&P 500.
  author: Michael Cembalest
    type: Person
    job title: J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: am.jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The killer application of long-horizon agents right now is places where you have this 'first draft' type of concept
  author: Harrison Chase
    type: Person
    job title: agent infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: startuphub.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: at some point the models got good enough, and that's when we moved from scaffolds to harnesses
  author: Harrison Chase
    type: Person
    job title: agent infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: startuphub.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: You throw hard problems at these things and you get long-horizon agents
  author: Harrison Chase
    type: Person
    job title: agent infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: startuphub.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The killer application of long-horizon agents right now is places where you have this 'first draft' type of concept
  author: Harrison Chase
    type: Person
    job title: agent infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: startuphub.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: They aren't reliable to nine nines of reliability, but they can do a ton of work
  author: Harrison Chase
    type: Person
    job title: agent infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: startuphub.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The killer application of long-horizon agents right now is places where you have this 'first draft' type of concept
  author: Harrison Chase
    type: Person
    job title: agent infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: startuphub.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The killer application of long-horizon agents right now is places where you have this 'first draft' type of concept
  author: Harrison Chase
    type: Person
    job title: agent infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: startuphub.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The killer application of long-horizon agents right now is places where you have this 'first draft' type of concept
  author: Harrison Chase
    type: Person
    job title: agent infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: startuphub.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-30
variable measured: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: My prediction is that data center build out is gonna merge with environmental issues and local construction issues, and that's gonna dominate local, like when people think about AI fights in 2026, a big chunk of it is gonna be about stuff that is not really about AI. It's about construction and energy production.
  author: Neil Chilson
    type: Person
    job title: Neil Chilson
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-30
    publisher: lawfaremedia.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/scaling-laws--a-year-that-felt-like-a-decade--2025-recap-with-sen.-maroney---neil-chilson
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-02
variable measured: Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I think that for the biggest of the companies that Google is competing with in the AI space, these remedies won't be a big value add.
  author: Neil Chilson
    type: Person
    job title: Neil Chilson
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-02
    publisher: npr.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.npr.org/2025/09/02/nx-s1-5478625/google-chrome-doj-antitrust-ruling
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-05
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The Grand Prize remains unclaimed, but nevertheless 2025 saw remarkable progress on LLM-driven refinement loops, both with "local" models and with commercial frontier models.
  author: François Chollet
    type: Person
    job title: Keras creator, AI researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-05
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/fchollet/status/1997011262723801106
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-05
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: While the Grand Prize remains unclaimed, we're excited to announce the ARC Prize 2025 Score and Paper winners.
  author: François Chollet
    type: Person
    job title: Keras creator, AI researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-05
    publisher: arcprize.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://arcprize.org/blog/arc-prize-2025-results-analysis
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-15
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We verified a Gemini 3 Pro refinement harness implementation open-sourced by Poetiq, which improves performance on ARC-AGI-2 from a baseline of 31% accuracy at $0.81 per task to 54% accuracy at $31 per task.
  author: François Chollet
    type: Person
    job title: Keras creator, AI researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-15
    publisher: arxiv.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://arxiv.org/html/2601.10904v1
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-05
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: There are agents today that are terrific. There are models today that are terrific. But in many cases, the data isn't ready to be agented yet. So we're putting agents on top of data that isn't ready to be agented. And that's creating another economic challenge for companies.
  author: Jim Covello
    type: Person
    job title: Goldman Sachs head of global equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-05
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/is-ai-a-bubble-worth-it-short-term-early-goldman-skeptic-covello-profits/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-09
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: But instead of cutting the capex, they've actually raised the capex.
  author: Jim Covello
    type: Person
    job title: Goldman Sachs head of global equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-09
    publisher: tradersmagazine.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.tradersmagazine.com/featured_articles/ai-economics-deteriorating-as-spending-rises-without-clear-returns/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-05
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In every cycle, the semiconductor stocks thrive when their customers thrive. Here in this cycle, the semiconductor companies are thriving at the economic expense of everybody above them
  author: Jim Covello
    type: Person
    job title: Goldman Sachs head of global equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-05
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/is-ai-a-bubble-worth-it-short-term-early-goldman-skeptic-covello-profits/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-06
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: FOMO has proven a stronger incentive than poor stock performance as hyperscalers have prioritized being involved in the AI arms race over their current shareholders
  author: Jim Covello
    type: Person
    job title: Goldman Sachs head of global equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-06
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/05/06/is-ai-a-bubble-goldman-sachs-skeptics-overhyped/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-05
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: You make investments in a business so that you can generate returns and make money. And we've gotten further away from that over the last couple years instead of closer to it.
  author: Jim Covello
    type: Person
    job title: Goldman Sachs head of global equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-05
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/is-ai-a-bubble-worth-it-short-term-early-goldman-skeptic-covello-profits/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-05
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: In a lot of ways, companies are losing more money today implementing this technology than they were two years ago
  author: Jim Covello
    type: Person
    job title: Goldman Sachs head of global equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-05
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/is-ai-a-bubble-worth-it-short-term-early-goldman-skeptic-covello-profits/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-06
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Something has to change with this dynamic, either the companies higher in the chain need to start earning a return on investment or they will eventually need to spend less on the chips that are powering this build
  author: Jim Covello
    type: Person
    job title: Goldman Sachs head of global equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-06
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/05/06/is-ai-a-bubble-goldman-sachs-skeptics-overhyped/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-05
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I really think it all boils down to one thing: do the enterprises make or save money implementing AI? If they do, this technology is going to fulfill its promise.
  author: Jim Covello
    type: Person
    job title: Goldman Sachs head of global equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-05
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/is-ai-a-bubble-worth-it-short-term-early-goldman-skeptic-covello-profits/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-08
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In February last year, Claude Code could write a quarter of my code. In February this year, the latest Opus model can write nine tenths of my code.
  author: David Crawshaw
    type: Person
    job title: distributed systems infrastructure engineer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-08
    publisher: crawshaw.io
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-08
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In February last year, Claude Code could write a quarter of my code. In February this year, the latest Opus model can write nine tenths of my code.
  author: David Crawshaw
    type: Person
    job title: distributed systems infrastructure engineer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-08
    publisher: crawshaw.io
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-08
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I implemented that entire Stripe product (as it relates to me) by typing three sentences. It solves my problem better than their product.
  author: David Crawshaw
    type: Person
    job title: distributed systems infrastructure engineer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-08
    publisher: crawshaw.io
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-08
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The LLMs of 2023 could not drive agents, the LLMs of 2025 are optimized for it
  author: David Crawshaw
    type: Person
    job title: distributed systems infrastructure engineer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-08
    publisher: crawshaw.io
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://crawshaw.io/blog/programming-with-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-08
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I see them fail catastrophically several times a week.
  author: David Crawshaw
    type: Person
    job title: distributed systems infrastructure engineer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-08
    publisher: crawshaw.io
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-08
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In 1900, 33% of Americans lived on a farm, and 40% worked in agriculture. In 2000, less than one percent lived on farms and 1% of workers are in agriculture. That was a net benefit to the world, that we all don't have to work to eat.
  author: David Crawshaw
    type: Person
    job title: distributed systems infrastructure engineer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-08
    publisher: crawshaw.io
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-08
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I am having more fun programming than I ever have, because so many more of the programs I wish I could find the time to write actually exist.
  author: David Crawshaw
    type: Person
    job title: distributed systems infrastructure engineer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-08
    publisher: crawshaw.io
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: In the aggregate, LLM ownership is being priced at $1.5 trillion or more, and the collective revenues, even generously defined, are less than $100 billion.
  author: Aswath Damodaran
    type: Person
    job title: valuation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2025/12/trillion-dollar-market-caps-fairy-tale.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: OpenAI, while still unlisted, has used the early lead that ChatGPT gave it in the LLM race to attract investments from a host of big tech companies (including Nvidia and Amazon) and venture capitalists, with the most recent investors pricing it at $500 billion, an astonishing number, given that the company reported revenues of only $13 billion in the most recent twelve months.
  author: Aswath Damodaran
    type: Person
    job title: valuation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2025/12/trillion-dollar-market-caps-fairy-tale.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-17
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I think AI is going to lower profit margins collectively across companies
  author: Aswath Damodaran
    type: Person
    job title: valuation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-17
    publisher: excessreturnspod.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://excessreturnspod.substack.com/p/full-transcript-aswath-damodaran
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-23
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the potential market can run from the tens of billions (if they remain subscription-based) to hundreds of billions or even trillions
  author: Aswath Damodaran
    type: Person
    job title: valuation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-23
    publisher: aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/04/to-trillion-dollars-and-beyond-spacex.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-02-12
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the models are getting substantially better generation over generation. I don't see that slowing down in the next few generations probably.
  author: Jeff Dean
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-02-12
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/jeff-dean-and-noam-shazeer
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-01
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we are making pretty significant progress
  author: Jeff Dean
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-01
    publisher: thelogic.co
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://thelogic.co/news/jeff-dean-google-ai-sovereignty-talent-wars-interview/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-22
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI is not just about answering you but has the ability to take action.
  author: Jeff Dean
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-22
    publisher: eu.36kr.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3567742079768711
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-01
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Not that far. I will claim that's probably possible in the next year-ish.
  author: Jeff Dean
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-01
    publisher: sequoiacap.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.sequoiacap.com/podcast/training-data-jeff-dean/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-02-12
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the model has a reasonably clear view of that data, but it sometimes gets confused and will give the wrong date for something.
  author: Jeff Dean
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-02-12
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/jeff-dean-and-noam-shazeer
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-02-12
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we're definitely investing in this area because we think it's important.
  author: Jeff Dean
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-02-12
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/jeff-dean-and-noam-shazeer
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-12
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Accelerators for reduced precision linear algebra are what you want, and you want them to be better and better generation over generation
  author: Jeff Dean
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-12
    publisher: sequoiacap.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sequoiacap.com/podcast/training-data-jeff-dean/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-22
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Having a good model is not enough; it must be affordable.
  author: Jeff Dean
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-22
    publisher: eu.36kr.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3567742079768711
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-03
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: If we create AI coding tools that can make people three times as productive, we'll mostly take that three times productivity and put it to writing three times as much software for different things than we will to making 1/3 as many people spend their time on software.
  author: Jeff Dean
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-03
    publisher: dataconomy.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dataconomy.com/2025/09/08/jeff-dean-explains-ais-impact-on-jobs-and-innovation-at-singapore/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-03
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: If we create AI coding tools that can make people three times as productive, we'll mostly take that three times productivity and put it to writing three times as much software for different things than we will to making 1/3 as many people spend their time on software.
  author: Jeff Dean
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-03
    publisher: dataconomy.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dataconomy.com/2025/09/08/jeff-dean-explains-ais-impact-on-jobs-and-innovation-at-singapore/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-02
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Over the last century, disruptive innovation has generally favored the young and the well-educated, because they can adapt to new ways of doing things. AI could be different, but I doubt it.
  author: David Deming
    type: Person
    job title: David Deming
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-02
    publisher: forklightning.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://forklightning.substack.com/p/shorting-the-ai-jobs-apocalypse
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-02
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: If you smashed all the lines together, you'd see that software developer jobs have continued to grow overall through the release of ChatGPT.
  author: David Deming
    type: Person
    job title: David Deming
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-02
    publisher: forklightning.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://forklightning.substack.com/p/shorting-the-ai-jobs-apocalypse
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-07
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In short, I think AI's going to be a great teammate because it can smooth out our rough edges, allowing each of us to specialize in what we do best.
  author: David Deming
    type: Person
    job title: David Deming
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-07
    publisher: forklightning.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://forklightning.substack.com/p/ai-human-teams-and-the-future-of
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-03
variable measured: Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The outcome is broadly favorable for Google, in our view, with the court ruling against the most severe remedy proposals introduced by the DOJ.
  author: Scott Devitt
    type: Person
    job title: Scott Devitt
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-03
    publisher: ca.finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-calling-googles-antitrust-decision-054718628.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-06
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI will affect virtually every function, application, and process in the company.
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-06
    publisher: jpmorganchase.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-06
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The pace of adoption will likely be far faster than prior technological transformations, like electricity or the internet.
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-06
    publisher: jpmorganchase.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-06
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I do not think it is an exaggeration to say that AI will cure some cancers, create new composites and reduce accidental deaths, among other positive outcomes.
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-06
    publisher: jpmorganchase.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-06
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Some of those projects won't get done the way they were announced. Some of them won't get the power they need.
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-06
    publisher: jpmorganchase.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-15
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Some of those projects won't get done the way they were announced. Some of them won't get the power they need.
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-15
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/articles/jamie-dimon-says-ai-isnt-135040924.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-06
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: at this time, we cannot predict the ultimate winners and losers in AI-related industries
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-06
    publisher: fool.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/07/dimon-says-ai-capital-spending-will-hit-725-billio/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-15
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Though some of these things may be in a bubble, in total, it'll probably pay off.
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-15
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/articles/jamie-dimon-says-ai-isnt-135040924.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-06
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI will affect virtually every function, application, and process in the company.
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-06
    publisher: jpmorganchase.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-06
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: at this time, we cannot predict the ultimate winners and losers in AI-related industries
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-06
    publisher: fool.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/07/dimon-says-ai-capital-spending-will-hit-725-billio/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: You can't lay off 2 million truckers tomorrow. If you do, you will have civil unrest.
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-says-government-power-234509176.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-06
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the developed world will be working three and a half days a week in 20, 30, 40 years, and have wonderful lives.
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-06
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/11/06/jamie-dimon-ai-will-shorten-work-week-three-and-a-half-days/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: We would agree, if we have to do that to save society.
  author: Jamie Dimon
    type: Person
    job title: large bank deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-says-government-power-234509176.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-30
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: As models and chips commoditize, the value of AI moves up the stack to orchestration and intelligence.
  author: Daniel Dines
    type: Person
    job title: RPA and automation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-30
    publisher: uipath.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.uipath.com/newsroom/uipath-launches-first-enterprise-grade-platform-for-agentic-automation
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-18
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Now, anyone can describe what they want, direct a coding agent to produce it, and carry through every stage to production.
  author: Daniel Dines
    type: Person
    job title: RPA and automation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-18
    publisher: techzine.eu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.techzine.eu/blogs/applications/141368/uipath-ceo-agentic-ai-shifts-the-definition-of-a-software-builder/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-03
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: When you connect AI agents, robots, people, and systems through Maestro, you move from pilots to production
  author: Daniel Dines
    type: Person
    job title: RPA and automation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-03
    publisher: uipath.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.uipath.com/blog/product-and-updates/agentic-ai-meets-roi-fusion-2025-defining-moment
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-03
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Enterprises are accelerating their AI and automation strategies, and they're looking for a unified platform rather than standalone tools.
  author: Daniel Dines
    type: Person
    job title: RPA and automation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-03
    publisher: ir.uipath.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://ir.uipath.com/news/detail/420/uipath-reports-third-quarter-fiscal-2026-financial-results
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-30
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Since launching Agent Builder in preview this January, we've seen accelerating adoption with customers creating thousands of autonomous agents and generating over 250,000 agent runs today.
  author: Daniel Dines
    type: Person
    job title: RPA and automation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-30
    publisher: diginomica.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://diginomica.com/uipath-ceo-daniel-dines-five-fold-right-win-powers-q1-solid-start-fiscal-26-year
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-30
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: As models and chips commoditize, the value of AI moves up the stack to orchestration and intelligence.
  author: Daniel Dines
    type: Person
    job title: RPA and automation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-30
    publisher: uipath.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.uipath.com/newsroom/uipath-launches-first-enterprise-grade-platform-for-agentic-automation
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-30
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Maestro is one of the most important and successful product introductions in our history.
  author: Daniel Dines
    type: Person
    job title: RPA and automation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-30
    publisher: diginomica.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://diginomica.com/uipath-ceo-daniel-dines-five-fold-right-win-powers-q1-solid-start-fiscal-26-year
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-06
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I just have to tell you, folks, I think the load is being overstated. We need to pump the brakes here.
  author: Joe Dominguez
    type: Person
    job title: power grid operator strategist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-06
    publisher: investing.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-constellation-energy-q1-2025-reveals-robust-growth-93CH-4025342
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-06
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Nuclear simply wins the match in every single dimension.
  author: Joe Dominguez
    type: Person
    job title: power grid operator strategist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-06
    publisher: investing.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-constellation-energy-q1-2025-reveals-robust-growth-93CH-4025342
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-06
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: What other resource could offer a twenty year fixed price?
  author: Joe Dominguez
    type: Person
    job title: power grid operator strategist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-06
    publisher: investing.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-constellation-energy-q1-2025-reveals-robust-growth-93CH-4025342
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-06
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The business updates from the tech companies are telling us that Americans are putting AI technology to work.
  author: Joe Dominguez
    type: Person
    job title: power grid operator strategist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-06
    publisher: investing.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-constellation-energy-q1-2025-reveals-robust-growth-93CH-4025342
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-14
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: If NIMBYism becomes the reason we lose the AI race, for whatever reason, we're in a whole lot of trouble.
  author: Joe Dominguez
    type: Person
    job title: power grid operator strategist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-14
    publisher: semafor.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.semafor.com/article/04/14/2026/constellation-energy-ceo-joe-dominguez-says-us-not-going-to-win-the-race-with-china-ai-energy-buildout
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-12
variable measured: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Some customers have been willing to continue advancing project discussions and agreement negotiations while others have chosen to pause and wait for regulatory clarity.
  author: Joe Dominguez
    type: Person
    job title: power grid operator strategist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-12
    publisher: utilitydive.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/constellation-energy-crane-pjm-ercot-earnings/819939/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-08
variable measured: Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: U.S. District Judge Leonie M. Brinkema will break up Google's (GOOG) ad tech monopoly.
  author: Teddy Downey
    type: Person
    job title: Teddy Downey
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-08
    publisher: thecapitolforum.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://thecapitolforum.com/capitol-forums-tech-policy-2026-predictions/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-01-22
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: we don't know if the error rate will go away, and so we don't know whether we should be building products that presume the model will sometimes be wrong or whether in a year or two we will be building products that presume we can rely on the model by itself.
  author: Benedict Evans
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-01-22
    publisher: ben-evans.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2025/1/the-problem-with-better-models
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-21
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the big four platform companies will have spent around $400bn this year and are far behind demand.
  author: Benedict Evans
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-21
    publisher: publicservicesalliance.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://publicservicesalliance.org/2025/12/21/benedict-evans-2025-year-end-column/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-21
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the big four platform companies will have spent around $400bn this year and are far behind demand.
  author: Benedict Evans
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-21
    publisher: publicservicesalliance.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://publicservicesalliance.org/2025/12/21/benedict-evans-2025-year-end-column/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-19
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The models have a very large user base, but very narrow engagement and stickiness, and no network effect or any other winner-takes-all effect so far that provides a clear path to turning that user base into something broader and durable.
  author: Benedict Evans
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-19
    publisher: ben-evans.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/2/19/how-will-openai-compete-nkg2x
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-19
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Only 5% of ChatGPT users are paying, and even US teens are much more likely to use this a few times a week or less than they are to use it multiple time a day.
  author: Benedict Evans
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-19
    publisher: ben-evans.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/2/19/how-will-openai-compete-nkg2x
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-25
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Something between 5% and 15% of people are finding a use for this every day
  author: Benedict Evans
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-25
    publisher: ben-evans.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2025/5/25/genais-adoption-puzzle
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-19
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: When you have an undifferentiated product, early leads in adoption tend not to be durable, and competition tends to shift to brand and distribution.
  author: Benedict Evans
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-19
    publisher: ben-evans.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/2/19/how-will-openai-compete-nkg2x
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-24
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: 'Exposure to automation' might mean more work, not less.
  author: Benedict Evans
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-24
    publisher: ben-evans.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/5/24/ai-job-exposure
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: 2026 will see a flood of state AI bills that creates a regulatory tower of babble—laws with different definitions, standards, and mandates.
  author: Kevin Frazier
    type: Person
    job title: Kevin Frazier
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: natlawreview.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://natlawreview.com/article/85-predictions-ai-and-law-2026
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-08
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: So unless we solve that, I don't think it's going to have an impact that will mean that labor force participation is going to be significantly lower 10 years from now.
  author: Carl Benedikt Frey
    type: Person
    job title: Carl Benedikt Frey
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-08
    publisher: fasterplease.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/why-progress-stops-my-chat-transcript
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: It's getting harder and harder to get value out of the next pre-trained giant model
  author: Ali Ghodsi
    type: Person
    job title: data platform
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/articles/databricks-ceo-says-agi-already-054525682.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Over 80% of the databases that are being launched on Databricks are not being launched by humans, but by AI agents
  author: Ali Ghodsi
    type: Person
    job title: data platform
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/12/09/databticks-ceo-1-trillion-valuation-agents-brainstorm-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: We all become supervisors
  author: Ali Ghodsi
    type: Person
    job title: data platform
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/articles/databricks-ceo-says-agi-already-054525682.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I see a huge bubble in many, many portions of the market
  author: Ali Ghodsi
    type: Person
    job title: data platform
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/12/24/databricks-ceo-ali-ghodsi-bubble-insane-zero-revenue-ai-circular/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I think like 12 months from now, it'll be much, much, much worse
  author: Ali Ghodsi
    type: Person
    job title: data platform
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/12/24/databricks-ceo-ali-ghodsi-bubble-insane-zero-revenue-ai-circular/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It's very elusive to get AI that really works and understands that proprietary data that's inside enterprise
  author: Ali Ghodsi
    type: Person
    job title: data platform
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/12/09/databticks-ceo-1-trillion-valuation-agents-brainstorm-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: really, really excited to get agents actually working inside the enterprise
  author: Ali Ghodsi
    type: Person
    job title: data platform
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: goldmansachs.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/talks-at-gs/ai-and-the-enterprise-revolution-databricks-ceo-ali-ghodsi
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: It's a commodity now to have AI that has general knowledge
  author: Ali Ghodsi
    type: Person
    job title: data platform
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/12/09/databticks-ceo-1-trillion-valuation-agents-brainstorm-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: That's just a huge growth factor for us. I think if we just did that, we could maybe get all the way to a trillion
  author: Ali Ghodsi
    type: Person
    job title: data platform
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/12/09/databticks-ceo-1-trillion-valuation-agents-brainstorm-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-13
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: people underestimate how hard it is to completely automate a task
  author: Ali Ghodsi
    type: Person
    job title: data platform
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-13
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/ceo-62b-data-ai-company-000512267.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-13
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think in a few years, yes, we'll have agents in many, many places, but there will be a human overseeing and approving every step
  author: Ali Ghodsi
    type: Person
    job title: data platform
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-13
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/ceo-62b-data-ai-company-000512267.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Spending an incremental $10 billion a year to improve your model does not deliver the return on investment on the technology itself to justify that … over the past few years, since there's been all of this scaling, we're seeing a slowdown in the improvement of the models.
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: tradingview.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3XA1KE:0-ai-startup-cohere-ceo-says-us-holds-edge-over-china-in-ai-race/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: over the past few years, since there's been all of this scaling, we're seeing a slowdown in the improvement of the models.
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: tradingview.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3XA1KE:0-ai-startup-cohere-ceo-says-us-holds-edge-over-china-in-ai-race/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-18
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: But now we're seeing [AI] is getting rolled out across every single company.
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-18
    publisher: sifted.eu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sifted.eu/articles/aidan-gomez-cohere-interview
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-07
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: People are used to working with systems that are half blind, or have an arm tied behind their back.
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-07
    publisher: upstartsmedia.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.upstartsmedia.com/p/cohere-ceo-exclusive-north-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Spending an incremental $10 billion a year to improve your model does not deliver the return on investment on the technology itself to justify that
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: tradingview.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3XA1KE:0-ai-startup-cohere-ceo-says-us-holds-edge-over-china-in-ai-race/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-21
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We feel [we are] in a very good position to build a sustainable, profit-generating business.
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-21
    publisher: betakit.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://betakit.com/aidan-gomez-says-cohere-could-ipo-soon-as-company-holds-secondary-sale/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-21
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have a differentiated deployment model, we have very high margins similar to a traditional [software-as-a-service] business, whereas many others in the industry are losing money per customer.
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-21
    publisher: betakit.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://betakit.com/aidan-gomez-says-cohere-could-ipo-soon-as-company-holds-secondary-sale/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-18
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: But now we're seeing [AI] is getting rolled out across every single company.
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-18
    publisher: sifted.eu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://sifted.eu/articles/aidan-gomez-cohere-interview
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-21
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we have very high margins similar to a traditional [software-as-a-service] business, whereas many others in the industry are losing money per customer.
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-21
    publisher: betakit.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://betakit.com/aidan-gomez-says-cohere-could-ipo-soon-as-company-holds-secondary-sale/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-21
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we have very high margins similar to a traditional [software-as-a-service] business
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-21
    publisher: betakit.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://betakit.com/aidan-gomez-says-cohere-could-ipo-soon-as-company-holds-secondary-sale/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I personally don't believe a lot of these stories of 'Terminators' and doomsdays and these sort of sci-fi narratives that emerged.
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: tradingview.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3XA1KE:0-ai-startup-cohere-ceo-says-us-holds-edge-over-china-in-ai-race/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The thing that actually matters is who is the primary service provider of this technology – it's not who gets the technology first, but who commercializes it at scale.
  author: Aidan Gomez
    type: Person
    job title: Cohere CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: tradingview.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3XA1KE:0-ai-startup-cohere-ceo-says-us-holds-edge-over-china-in-ai-race/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-01
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: profoundly more powerful
  author: Ken Griffin
    type: Person
    job title: hedge fund deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-01
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/05/18/billionaire-ken-griffin-ai-garbage-depressed-dramatic-impact-society/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-16
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: step change
  author: Ken Griffin
    type: Person
    job title: hedge fund deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-16
    publisher: vinnews.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://vinnews.com/2026/05/16/citadel-ceo-ken-griffin-says-ai-agents-now-automating-high-skilled-finance-jobs/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-01
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: To be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with master's and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months is being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days
  author: Ken Griffin
    type: Person
    job title: hedge fund deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-01
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/05/18/billionaire-ken-griffin-ai-garbage-depressed-dramatic-impact-society/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-01
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: work that we would usually do with people with master's and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months is being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days
  author: Ken Griffin
    type: Person
    job title: hedge fund deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-01
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/05/18/billionaire-ken-griffin-ai-garbage-depressed-dramatic-impact-society/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Is it hype? Of course
  author: Ken Griffin
    type: Person
    job title: hedge fund deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/articles/citadels-ceo-ai-boom-hype-135646520.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: You're not going to generate this kind of spend unless you're going to make a promise you're going to profoundly change the world
  author: Ken Griffin
    type: Person
    job title: hedge fund deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/articles/citadels-ceo-ai-boom-hype-135646520.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: How else are you going to get people to write $500 billion of checks just this year alone?
  author: Ken Griffin
    type: Person
    job title: hedge fund deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/articles/citadels-ceo-ai-boom-hype-135646520.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-01
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: You could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society
  author: Ken Griffin
    type: Person
    job title: hedge fund deployment
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-01
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/05/18/billionaire-ken-griffin-ai-garbage-depressed-dramatic-impact-society/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-10
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Our new architecture, which enables hierarchical *dynamic chunking*, is not only tokenizer-free, but simply scales better.
  author: Albert Gu
    type: Person
    job title: sequence modeling architecture researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-10
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/_albertgu/status/1943704103059664966
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-10
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: an H-Net with one stage of hierarchy operating at the byte level outperforms a strong Transformer language model operating over BPE tokens.
  author: Albert Gu
    type: Person
    job title: sequence modeling architecture researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-10
    publisher: arxiv.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.07955
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-17
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There's a real technology wave that's fundamentally changing the world, and there's also massive speculation, simultaneous.
  author: Bill Gurley
    type: Person
    job title: Benchmark general partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-17
    publisher: tim.blog
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tim.blog/2025/12/17/bill-gurley-running-down-a-dream/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-04
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I can't imagine someone saying, like, replacing SAP with, you know, just telling AI, oh, well, we'll just dump our transactions into AI... I don't think the auditors would be okay with it.
  author: Bill Gurley
    type: Person
    job title: Benchmark general partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-04
    publisher: podcasts.happyscribe.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://podcasts.happyscribe.com/money-rehab-with-nicole-lapin/legendary-venture-capitalist-bill-gurley-on-the-ai-bubble-why-ipos-feel-rigged-and-how-to-find-your-dream-job
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: One day, I just think we trip and run out of money on those things. I do think that moment stands in front of us.
  author: Bill Gurley
    type: Person
    job title: Benchmark general partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benchmark-bill-gurley-ai-bubble-172307387.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: One day we're going to have an AI reset, because waves create bubbles, because interlopers come in.
  author: Bill Gurley
    type: Person
    job title: Benchmark general partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benchmark-bill-gurley-ai-bubble-172307387.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-04
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: There was no cash flow. So it's cash flowless revenue for Microsoft. And that should be questionable. It's certainly low revenue quality.
  author: Bill Gurley
    type: Person
    job title: Benchmark general partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-04
    publisher: podcasts.happyscribe.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://podcasts.happyscribe.com/money-rehab-with-nicole-lapin/legendary-venture-capitalist-bill-gurley-on-the-ai-bubble-why-ipos-feel-rigged-and-how-to-find-your-dream-job
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-04
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: You're using your balance sheet to prop up your revenue... you have revenue without incremental cash flow.
  author: Bill Gurley
    type: Person
    job title: Benchmark general partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-04
    publisher: podcasts.happyscribe.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://podcasts.happyscribe.com/money-rehab-with-nicole-lapin/legendary-venture-capitalist-bill-gurley-on-the-ai-bubble-why-ipos-feel-rigged-and-how-to-find-your-dream-job
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-04
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I can't imagine someone saying, like, replacing SAP with, you know, just telling AI, oh, well, we'll just dump our transactions into AI... I don't think the auditors would be okay with it.
  author: Bill Gurley
    type: Person
    job title: Benchmark general partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-04
    publisher: podcasts.happyscribe.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://podcasts.happyscribe.com/money-rehab-with-nicole-lapin/legendary-venture-capitalist-bill-gurley-on-the-ai-bubble-why-ipos-feel-rigged-and-how-to-find-your-dream-job
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-03
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: This is new and fast, and it's attacking jobs that haven't been attacked in the past.
  author: Bill Gurley
    type: Person
    job title: Benchmark general partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-03
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/03/03/venture-capitalist-bill-gurley-warns-workers-college-conveyor-belt-safe-jobs-ai-disruption-first/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: One day we're going to have an AI reset, because waves create bubbles, because interlopers come in.
  author: Bill Gurley
    type: Person
    job title: Benchmark general partner
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benchmark-bill-gurley-ai-bubble-172307387.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We built our own models even as folks said, 'Hey, these frontier models are getting more powerful and cheaper, why don't you just build on them?'
  author: May Habib
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: radical.vc
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://radical.vc/writer-ceo-may-habib-on-full-stack-enterprise-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: these frontier models are getting more powerful and cheaper
  author: May Habib
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: radical.vc
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://radical.vc/writer-ceo-may-habib-on-full-stack-enterprise-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-10
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI HQ represents the next era of Writer's evolution as we bring our foundational technology to the world of agentic AI, tackling the toughest work for our customers with enterprise-grade agents.
  author: May Habib
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-10
    publisher: businesswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250410223841/en/Writer-Launches-AI-HQ-to-Revolutionize-Agentic-Work-in-the-Enterprise
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-02
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The biggest barrier to democratizing agents in the enterprise is trust,
  author: May Habib
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-02
    publisher: press.aboutamazon.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://press.aboutamazon.com/2025/12/writer-and-aws-team-up-to-make-enterprise-agents-more-scalable-and-secure
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-07
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the leaders who are putting in the work to radically redesign operations with human-agent collaboration at the center are the ones compounding their advantage in ways competitors can't replicate
  author: May Habib
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-07
    publisher: businesswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260407140918/en/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-10
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: tackling the toughest work for our customers with enterprise-grade agents
  author: May Habib
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-10
    publisher: businesswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250410223841/en/Writer-Launches-AI-HQ-to-Revolutionize-Agentic-Work-in-the-Enterprise
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-07
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the future belongs to the companies putting agent-building power directly into the hands of people closest to the work
  author: May Habib
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-07
    publisher: businesswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260407140918/en/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We think that very soon, on a horizon of five to 10 years, we won't be doing work as much as we will be building AI that does the work.
  author: May Habib
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: venturebeat.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://venturebeat.com/ai/writer-unveils-ai-hq-platform-betting-on-agents-to-transform-enterprise-work
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-07
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Layoffs are not a viable AI strategy.
  author: May Habib
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-07
    publisher: businesswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260407140918/en/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-22
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: This will create exciting new roles, new AI-related jobs that are interesting and rewarding.
  author: May Habib
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-22
    publisher: venturebeat.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://venturebeat.com/ai/writer-unveils-ai-hq-platform-betting-on-agents-to-transform-enterprise-work
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-22
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we won't be doing work as much as we will be building AI that does the work. This will create exciting new roles, new AI-related jobs that are interesting and rewarding.
  author: May Habib
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-22
    publisher: venturebeat.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://venturebeat.com/ai/writer-unveils-ai-hq-platform-betting-on-agents-to-transform-enterprise-work
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-17
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: in 2025, the data is good enough, the technology is getting good enough, the compute is getting available enough, and the use cases are getting clearer
  author: John Halamka
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI institutional deployment operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-17
    publisher: chiefhealthcareexecutive.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.chiefhealthcareexecutive.com/view/mayo-clinic-s-john-halamka-we-have-to-use-ai-
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-01
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: this may soon become our standard of care
  author: John Halamka
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI institutional deployment operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-01
    publisher: healthcareitnews.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/john-halamka-himss26-may-soon-become-our-standard-care
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-01
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: there is no such thing as hallucination-free generative AI
  author: John Halamka
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI institutional deployment operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-01
    publisher: healthcareitnews.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/generative-ai-not-reliable-yet-says-mayo-clinics-john-halamka
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-01
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Generative AI is a very different beast because it's not deterministic, it's probabilistic
  author: John Halamka
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI institutional deployment operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-01
    publisher: healthcareitnews.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/generative-ai-not-reliable-yet-says-mayo-clinics-john-halamka
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-17
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we aren't going to have enough caregivers to be able to deliver the care they need
  author: John Halamka
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI institutional deployment operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-17
    publisher: chiefhealthcareexecutive.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.chiefhealthcareexecutive.com/view/mayo-clinic-s-john-halamka-we-have-to-use-ai-
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-01
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we are going to see a lot of physician workflow and nursing workflow augmented by predictive AI
  author: John Halamka
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI institutional deployment operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-01
    publisher: healthcareitnews.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/generative-ai-not-reliable-yet-says-mayo-clinics-john-halamka
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-07
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The scaling of the current systems, we must push that to the maximum, because at the minimum, it will be a key component of the final AGI system.
  author: Demis Hassabis
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-07
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/articles/google-deepmind-ceo-demis-hassabis-224741665.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-22
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We're seeing incredible gains with the existing techniques, pushing them to the limit.
  author: Demis Hassabis
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-22
    publisher: kantrowitz.medium.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://kantrowitz.medium.com/demis-hassabis-and-sergey-brin-on-ai-scaling-agi-timeline-robotics-simulation-theory-ef3f7a740eeb
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-01-21
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: a lot richer than just the language models and things like AlphaFold
  author: Demis Hassabis
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-01-21
    publisher: pymnts.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.pymnts.com/artificial-intelligence-2/2025/google-deepmind-ceo-ai-designed-drugs-coming-to-clinical-trials-in-2025
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-17
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: If your world model has just a 1% error rate, if you build over 50 or 100 steps, that 1% compounds.
  author: Demis Hassabis
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-17
    publisher: computing.co.uk
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.computing.co.uk/event/2025/agentic-ai-complex-google-demis-hassabis
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-14
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: We are lacking consistency
  author: Demis Hassabis
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-14
    publisher: analyticsindiamag.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://analyticsindiamag.com/ai-news-updates/deepminds-demis-hassabis-says-calling-ai-phd-intelligences-is-nonsense/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-28
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think we're going to see A.I. get even better. It's already extremely good.
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-28
    publisher: transcripts.cnn.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-12-28/segment/01
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-28
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Each seven months or so, it gets to be able to do tasks that are about twice as long.
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-28
    publisher: transcripts.cnn.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-12-28/segment/01
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-28
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It's got better at doing things like reasoning and also at things like deceiving people.
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-28
    publisher: transcripts.cnn.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-12-28/segment/01
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-28
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: An A.I., to achieve the goals you give it, wants to stay in existence.
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-28
    publisher: transcripts.cnn.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-12-28/segment/01
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-28
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Along with those wonderful things come some scary things. And I don't think people are putting enough work into how we can mitigate those scary things.
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-28
    publisher: transcripts.cnn.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-12-28/segment/01
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-18
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: There may be a bubble in the sense that people aren't going to get the money back on their investments
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-18
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/geoffrey-hinton-on-why-ai-could-be-a-bubble-because-companies-are-underestimating-social-impacts-of-the-tech/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-16
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think for mundane intellectual labor, AI is just going to replace everybody.
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-16
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/godfather-ai-reveals-jobs-safest-163407783.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-06
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: What's actually going to happen is rich people are going to use AI to replace workers. It's going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits.
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-06
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/09/06/godfather-of-ai-geoffrey-hinton-massive-unemployment-soaring-profits-capitalist-system/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-06
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: It's going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits.
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-06
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/09/06/godfather-of-ai-geoffrey-hinton-massive-unemployment-soaring-profits-capitalist-system/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-01
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I believe that it can't. I believe that to make money you're going to have to replace human labor.
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-01
    publisher: finalroundai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/geoffrey-hinton-says-tech-investment-cant-pay-off-without-destroying-jobs
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-26
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: He'll get a lot of pressure from industry not to do it.
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-26
    publisher: theglobeandmail.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-geoffrey-hinton-regulation-ai-evan-solomon/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-26
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Companies will always say that regulation will interfere with innovation.
  author: Geoffrey Hinton
    type: Person
    job title: AI safety + governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-26
    publisher: theglobeandmail.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-geoffrey-hinton-regulation-ai-evan-solomon/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I strongly believe that the next wave of intelligence will be defined by cost of adaptability, not model size. I call this the slow death of scaling.
  author: Sara Hooker
    type: Person
    job title: Adaption Labs co-founder (ex-Cohere)
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/sarahookr/status/1976665124963525111
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Most labs won't quadruple the size of their model each year, mainly because we're seeing saturation in the architecture.
  author: Sara Hooker
    type: Person
    job title: Adaption Labs co-founder (ex-Cohere)
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/02/04/adaption-labs-50-million-seed-funding-emergence-captial-sara-hooker-sudip-roy-ai-models-that-learn-on-the-fly/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the relationship between training compute + performance is uncertain + rapidly changing
  author: Sara Hooker
    type: Person
    job title: Adaption Labs co-founder (ex-Cohere)
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: papers.ssrn.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-18
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The computation requirement, the scaling law of AI is more resilient, and in fact, hyper accelerated.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-18
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-18
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The computation requirement, the scaling law of AI is more resilient, and in fact, hyper accelerated.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-18
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-20
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference — each growing exponentially. We've entered the virtuous cycle of AI.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-20
    publisher: barchart.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-01-06
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The age of AI Agentics is here.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-01-06
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-jensen-huang-says-ai-044815659.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There are trillions of dollars of infrastructure that needs to be built out.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/01/21/jensen-huang-on-ai-bubble-largest-infrastructure-buildout-history/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-21
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: We need more energy.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-21
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/01/21/jensen-huang-on-ai-bubble-largest-infrastructure-buildout-history/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-20
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-20
    publisher: barchart.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-17
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-17
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/03/17/jensen-huang-ai-infrastructure-buildout-1-trillion-dollars/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-20
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We've entered the virtuous cycle of AI.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-20
    publisher: barchart.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-20
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-20
    publisher: barchart.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-20
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups, across more industries, and in more countries.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-20
    publisher: barchart.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-20
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-20
    publisher: barchart.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-20
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups, across more industries, and in more countries.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-20
    publisher: barchart.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Where motors replaced labor and physical activity, we now have AI.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: barchart.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/35499309/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-says-65-of-the-world-s-gdp-or-50-trillion-will-be-augmented-by-ai-just-like-how-motors-replaced-labor
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-14
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Some jobs will be lost. Many jobs would be created. And what I hope is that the productivity gains that we see in all the industries will lift society.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-14
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/ai-wont-kill-job-mdash-103707225.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-14
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Some jobs will be lost. Many jobs would be created.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-14
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/ai-wont-kill-job-mdash-103707225.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-14
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI empowers people, it lifts people, it closes the technology gap, and as a result, more people will be able to do more things.
  author: Jensen Huang
    type: Person
    job title: chips
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-14
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/ai-wont-kill-job-mdash-103707225.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-01-07
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The unprecedented capabilities of foundation models have opened the door to agentic applications that were previously unimaginable.
  author: Chip Huyen
    type: Person
    job title: ai engineering
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-01-07
    publisher: huyenchip.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://huyenchip.com/2025/01/07/agents.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-01-07
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: While there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that LLMs are poor planners, it's unclear whether it's because we don't know how to use LLMs the right way or because LLMs, fundamentally, can't plan.
  author: Chip Huyen
    type: Person
    job title: ai engineering
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-01-07
    publisher: huyenchip.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://huyenchip.com/2025/01/07/agents.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-01-07
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: If the model's accuracy is 95% per step, over 10 steps, the accuracy will drop to 60%, and over 100 steps, the accuracy will be only 0.6%.
  author: Chip Huyen
    type: Person
    job title: ai engineering
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-01-07
    publisher: huyenchip.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://huyenchip.com/2025/01/07/agents.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-01-07
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Just as you shouldn't give an intern the authority to delete your production database, you shouldn't allow an unreliable AI to initiate bank transfers.
  author: Chip Huyen
    type: Person
    job title: ai engineering
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-01-07
    publisher: huyenchip.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://huyenchip.com/2025/01/07/agents.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-26
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The last year has been all about AI agents and expectations have been sky-high. When you see these reports, that's what's coming out.
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-26
    publisher: siliconangle.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://siliconangle.com/2025/09/26/glean-pushes-toward-enterprise-ai-agents-aifactoriesdatacenters/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-21
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Of course, over the years [AI] has gotten better, so now it can actually not just find information for you, not just answer questions, but can actually do a lot of your work on your behalf.
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-21
    publisher: businesstoday.in
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/ai-cant-replace-humans-indian-origin-glean-ceo-arvind-jain-calms-layoff-fears-532643-2026-05-21
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-15
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: You have to connect the reasoning and generative power of the models with the context inside your company.
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-15
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/15/the-enterprise-ai-land-grab-is-on-glean-is-building-the-layer-beneath-the-interface/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-21
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Of course, over the years [AI] has gotten better, so now it can actually not just find information for you, not just answer questions, but can actually do a lot of your work on your behalf.
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-21
    publisher: businesstoday.in
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/ai-cant-replace-humans-indian-origin-glean-ceo-arvind-jain-calms-layoff-fears-532643-2026-05-21
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-15
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: You need to build a permissions-aware governance layer and retrieval layer that is able to bring the right information, but knowing who's asking that question.
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-15
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/15/the-enterprise-ai-land-grab-is-on-glean-is-building-the-layer-beneath-the-interface/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-08
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: They're not experimenting anymore - they're operationalizing AI to drive ROI at scale.
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-08
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glean-surpasses-200m-arr-enterprise-231500406.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-15
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Our product gets better because we're able to leverage the innovation that they are making in the market.
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-15
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/15/the-enterprise-ai-land-grab-is-on-glean-is-building-the-layer-beneath-the-interface/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-08
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: They're not experimenting anymore - they're operationalizing AI to drive ROI at scale.
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-08
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glean-surpasses-200m-arr-enterprise-231500406.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-15
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have a very healthy, fast-growing business.
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-15
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/15/the-enterprise-ai-land-grab-is-on-glean-is-building-the-layer-beneath-the-interface/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-21
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we're not seeing any role getting eliminated. Not today
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-21
    publisher: businesstoday.in
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/ai-cant-replace-humans-indian-origin-glean-ceo-arvind-jain-calms-layoff-fears-532643-2026-05-21
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-20
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: But practically we work with the largest enterprises in the world, and we're not seeing any role getting eliminated—not today.
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-20
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/05/20/tech-ceos-warn-job-losses-glean-chief-says-ai-never-replace-a-single-worker/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-20
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I don't think AI—or actually, for me, hopefully forever, too—AI never replaces any human, and it just actually augments us, enables us, allows us to do higher quality work
  author: Arvind Jain
    type: Person
    job title: enterprise context layer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-20
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/05/20/tech-ceos-warn-job-losses-glean-chief-says-ai-never-replace-a-single-worker/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-19
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: 2025 has been a strong and eventful year of progress in LLMs.
  author: Andrej Karpathy
    type: Person
    job title: engineer educator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-19
    publisher: karpathy.bearblog.dev
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://karpathy.bearblog.dev/year-in-review-2025/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-19
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: 2025 has been a strong and eventful year of progress in LLMs.
  author: Andrej Karpathy
    type: Person
    job title: engineer educator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-19
    publisher: karpathy.bearblog.dev
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://karpathy.bearblog.dev/year-in-review-2025/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-17
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: this is really a lot more accurately described as the decade of agents.
  author: Andrej Karpathy
    type: Person
    job title: engineer educator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-17
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-17
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: this is really a lot more accurately described as the decade of agents.
  author: Andrej Karpathy
    type: Person
    job title: engineer educator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-17
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-17
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: They don't have enough intelligence, they're not multimodal enough, they can't do computer use and all this stuff
  author: Andrej Karpathy
    type: Person
    job title: engineer educator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-17
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-17
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There's this what I call 'autonomy slider,' where more and more stuff is automated—of the stuff that can be automated at any point in time—and we're doing a bit less and less and raising ourselves in the layer of abstraction over the automation.
  author: Andrej Karpathy
    type: Person
    job title: engineer educator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-17
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-17
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There's this what I call 'autonomy slider,' where more and more stuff is automated—of the stuff that can be automated at any point in time—and we're doing a bit less and less and raising ourselves in the layer of abstraction over the automation.
  author: Andrej Karpathy
    type: Person
    job title: engineer educator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-17
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-15
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: It's a stepwise improvement on the existing product offerings. But it isn't a quantum leap.
  author: David Karpf
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-15
    publisher: davekarpf.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/gpt5-and-the-end-of-naive-ai-futurism
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-15
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The velocity of change feels like it is slowing down.
  author: David Karpf
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-15
    publisher: davekarpf.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/gpt5-and-the-end-of-naive-ai-futurism
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-15
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: GPT5 can't count the Bs in 'blueberry.' Oh, and it STILL hallucinates.
  author: David Karpf
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-15
    publisher: davekarpf.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/gpt5-and-the-end-of-naive-ai-futurism
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-15
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: GPT5 can't count the Bs in 'blueberry.' Oh, and it STILL hallucinates.
  author: David Karpf
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-15
    publisher: davekarpf.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/gpt5-and-the-end-of-naive-ai-futurism
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-14
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Capital expenditures on AI now account for something like 40% of U.S. economic activity
  author: David Karpf
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-14
    publisher: davekarpf.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/its-giving-enron
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-04
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: All the major AI companies are reporting massive growth in their subscription plans, while also facing the obvious problem that those subscriptions are revenue-negative.
  author: David Karpf
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-04
    publisher: davekarpf.beehiiv.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/what-sort-of-ai-bubble-are-we-in
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C3.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-04
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: All the major AI companies are reporting massive growth in their subscription plans, while also facing the obvious problem that those subscriptions are revenue-negative.
  author: David Karpf
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-04
    publisher: davekarpf.beehiiv.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/what-sort-of-ai-bubble-are-we-in
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-04
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: AI companies have not generated the demand to pay for the expensive data centers. They've generated and subsidized the demand for compute.
  author: David Karpf
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-04
    publisher: davekarpf.beehiiv.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/what-sort-of-ai-bubble-are-we-in
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-22
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The government will supply public money to backstop huge Silicon Valley bets, recognizing that if the bubble were to pop before the November election, it would prompt a 2008-scale financial crisis.
  author: David Karpf
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-22
    publisher: davekarpf.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/some-2026-predictions
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-01
variable measured: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I suspect the next few years will see an awful lot of anti-data center activism.
  author: David Karpf
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-01
    publisher: davekarpf.beehiiv.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/ai-populism-is-a-term-that-obscures-more-than-it-reveals-a4db
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-06
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Starting in about 2030, 80% of all jobs, so two-thirds of all jobs, will be capable of being done by an AI.
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-06
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/03/06/vinod-khosla-predicts-80-percent-of-jobs-done-by-ai-15-trillion-of-gdp-going-away/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-01
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Within the next five years, any economically valuable job humans can do, AI will be able to do 80% of it
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-01
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/07/01/silicon-valley-investor-vinod-khosla-ai-job-prediction-interview/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-09
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Almost all expertise globally will be free. It'll raise lots of interesting questions.
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-09
    publisher: storyboard18.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.storyboard18.com/brand-makers/almost-all-expertise-globally-will-be-free-vinod-khosla-questions-wages-in-ai-world-91584.htm
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-01
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: almost every job is being reinvented, every material thing is being reinvented differently with AI as a driver
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-01
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/07/01/silicon-valley-investor-vinod-khosla-ai-job-prediction-interview/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-20
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: People equate bubble to stock prices, which has nothing to do with anything other than fear and greed among investors
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-20
    publisher: finviz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finviz.com/news/280657/vinod-khosla-on-ai-bubble-fears-people-equate-bubble-to-stock-prices-but-real-demand-is-in-api-calls
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-20
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Bubbles should be measured by the number of API calls
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-20
    publisher: finviz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finviz.com/news/280657/vinod-khosla-on-ai-bubble-fears-people-equate-bubble-to-stock-prices-but-real-demand-is-in-api-calls
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-20
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Bubbles should be measured by the number of API calls
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-20
    publisher: finviz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finviz.com/news/280657/vinod-khosla-on-ai-bubble-fears-people-equate-bubble-to-stock-prices-but-real-demand-is-in-api-calls
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-20
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Bubbles should be measured by the number of API calls
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-20
    publisher: finviz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finviz.com/news/280657/vinod-khosla-on-ai-bubble-fears-people-equate-bubble-to-stock-prices-but-real-demand-is-in-api-calls
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-06
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: $15 trillion of U.S. GDP is labor, and that $15 trillion will mostly go away.
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-06
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/03/06/vinod-khosla-predicts-80-percent-of-jobs-done-by-ai-15-trillion-of-gdp-going-away/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-30
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: There will be massive job dislocation
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-30
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/03/24/vinod-khosla-hill-valley-american-politics-fear-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-06
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: $15 trillion of U.S. GDP is labor, $15 trillion that will mostly go away.
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-06
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/03/06/vinod-khosla-predicts-80-percent-of-jobs-done-by-ai-15-trillion-of-gdp-going-away/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-30
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Will there be new kinds of jobs? Maybe, maybe not.
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-30
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/03/24/vinod-khosla-hill-valley-american-politics-fear-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-30
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The single biggest danger to AI is not AI capability or lack thereof. The single biggest danger to AI adoption is politics
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-30
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/03/24/vinod-khosla-hill-valley-american-politics-fear-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-23
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: We're in a techno-economic war with China, and we shouldn't call it anything other than a war.
  author: Vinod Khosla
    type: Person
    job title: Khosla Ventures founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-23
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/the-us-is-in-a-techno-economic-war-with-china-vinod-khosla/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-20
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It was truly a quantum leap from anything that anybody in computer science who was honest with themselves would have predicted in the next 10 years.
  author: Isaac (Zak) Kohane
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deployment + evaluation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-20
    publisher: news.harvard.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2025/03/how-ai-is-transforming-medicine-healthcare/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-05
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: GPT-5 Pro just disproved a conjecture on the list of the Simon's Foundation's "Open Problems" list. Very impressive. I wonder where the goal posts will move now?
  author: Isaac (Zak) Kohane
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deployment + evaluation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-05
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/zakkohane/status/1974962623855923356
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-05
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: GPT-5 Pro just disproved a conjecture on the list of the Simon's Foundation's "Open Problems" list. Very impressive. I wonder where the goal posts will move now?
  author: Isaac (Zak) Kohane
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deployment + evaluation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-05
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/zakkohane/status/1974962623855923356
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-20
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It is no longer a conversation about, 'Will AI replace doctors,' so much as, 'Will AI, with a set of clinicians who may not look like the clinicians that we're used to, firm up the tottering edifice that is organized medicine?'
  author: Isaac (Zak) Kohane
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deployment + evaluation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-20
    publisher: news.harvard.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2025/03/how-ai-is-transforming-medicine-healthcare/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-20
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Having an instant second opinion after any interaction with a clinician will change, for the better, the nature of the doctor-patient relationship.
  author: Isaac (Zak) Kohane
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deployment + evaluation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-20
    publisher: news.harvard.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2025/03/how-ai-is-transforming-medicine-healthcare/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-09
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I remain very excited by the potential of AI and the potential of foundation models within AI, but specifically expanding the notion of foundation models beyond the sort of ones that people typically think about, which is text and images on the web
  author: Daphne Koller
    type: Person
    job title: AI drug discovery operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-09
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/07/09/leadership-next-daphne-koller-insitro-coursera/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-09
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: And in fact, it did take away a lot of jobs. I mean, electricity certainly took a lot of jobs, right? I mean, the agricultural revolution took away a lot of jobs.
  author: Daphne Koller
    type: Person
    job title: AI drug discovery operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-09
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/07/09/leadership-next-daphne-koller-insitro-coursera/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-01
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Frontier AI models are rapidly becoming better and more efficient
  author: Anton Korinek
    type: Person
    job title: public finance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-01
    publisher: frbsf.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/April-2025-EERN-Anton-Korinek-The-Economics-of-Transformative-AI.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: As it turns out, AI has gotten very powerful within one decade, much more quickly than almost anybody expected.
  author: Anton Korinek
    type: Person
    job title: public finance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: richmondfed.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2025/q4_interview
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-01
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: currently rapid progress
  author: Anton Korinek
    type: Person
    job title: public finance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-01
    publisher: frbsf.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/April-2025-EERN-Anton-Korinek-The-Economics-of-Transformative-AI.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the more these autonomous agents roll out, the more AI will become a technology that actually displaces work rather than just complimenting it.
  author: Anton Korinek
    type: Person
    job title: public finance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: lawfaremedia.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/scaling-laws--the-ai-economy-and-you--how-ai-is--will--and-may-alter-the-nature-of-work-and-economic-growth-with-anton-korinek--nathan-goldschlag--and-bharat-chand…
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-01
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: build on greater LLM reliability, longer context windows, faster speed
  author: Anton Korinek
    type: Person
    job title: public finance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-01
    publisher: frbsf.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/April-2025-EERN-Anton-Korinek-The-Economics-of-Transformative-AI.pdf
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Recent advances in AI may herald the near arrival of systems that can automate essentially all work.
  author: Anton Korinek
    type: Person
    job title: public finance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: digitaleconomy.stanford.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/economic-growth-under-transformative-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: if our economy fundamentally changes. If it becomes an AGI-driven economy, then I think we have to acknowledge that the role of labor will have to decline and just telling people to be more dynamic would not be a solution.
  author: Anton Korinek
    type: Person
    job title: public finance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: lawfaremedia.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/scaling-laws--the-ai-economy-and-you--how-ai-is--will--and-may-alter-the-nature-of-work-and-economic-growth-with-anton-korinek--nathan-goldschlag--and-bharat-chand…
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: the more these autonomous agents roll out, the more AI will become a technology that actually displaces work rather than just complimenting it.
  author: Anton Korinek
    type: Person
    job title: public finance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: lawfaremedia.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/scaling-laws--the-ai-economy-and-you--how-ai-is--will--and-may-alter-the-nature-of-work-and-economic-growth-with-anton-korinek--nathan-goldschlag--and-bharat-chand…
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-09
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The AI-driven supercycle is fueling record capex and rapid earnings expansion.
  author: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
    type: Person
    job title: equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-09
    publisher: jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-07
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: 2026 should be another strong year for AI stocks, with capex likely to surpass expectations.
  author: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
    type: Person
    job title: equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-07
    publisher: futurism.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/investors-bracing-ai-bubble-reckoning
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-09
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: This momentum is spreading geographically and across a diverse list of industries, from technology and utilities to banks, healthcare and logistics, creating winners and losers in the process.
  author: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
    type: Person
    job title: equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-09
    publisher: jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-09
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The AI-driven supercycle is fueling record capex and rapid earnings expansion.
  author: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
    type: Person
    job title: equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-09
    publisher: jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-09
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The AI-driven supercycle is fueling record capex and rapid earnings expansion.
  author: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
    type: Person
    job title: equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-09
    publisher: jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-09
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Despite AI bubble and valuation concerns, we see current elevated multiples correctly anticipating above-trend earnings growth, an AI capex boom, rising shareholder payouts, and easier fiscal policy.
  author: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
    type: Person
    job title: equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-09
    publisher: jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-10
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Enterprise software remains deeply embedded across the corporate landscape, underpinned by multi-year contracts and high switching costs that provide a significant buffer against near-term displacement.
  author: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
    type: Person
    job title: equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-10
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/02/10/stocks-2-trillion-software-wipeout-ai-bull-market/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-10
variable measured: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Importantly, emerging evidence suggests that AI is more likely to be additive to software workflows in the near term rather than a substitute.
  author: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
    type: Person
    job title: equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-10
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/02/10/stocks-2-trillion-software-wipeout-ai-bull-market/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-10
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The market is pricing in worst-case AI disruption scenarios that are unlikely to materialize over the next three to six months.
  author: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
    type: Person
    job title: equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-10
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/02/10/stocks-2-trillion-software-wipeout-ai-bull-market/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-09
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: At the heart of our outlook is a multidimensional polarization: equity markets split between AI and non-AI sectors, a U.S. economy balancing robust capex with soft labor demand, and a widening divide in household spending.
  author: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
    type: Person
    job title: equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-09
    publisher: jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-09
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Despite AI bubble and valuation concerns, we see current elevated multiples correctly anticipating above-trend earnings growth, an AI capex boom, rising shareholder payouts, and easier fiscal policy.
  author: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
    type: Person
    job title: equity research
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-09
    publisher: jpmorgan.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-19
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: LLMs are incredibly useful... But at it ends, to some extent, except for a few domains, are mostly information retrieval systems.
  author: Yann LeCun
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI scientist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-19
    publisher: businesstoday.in
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/story/india-ai-impact-summit-2026-yann-lecun-calls-agi-overhyped-ai-should-amplify-human-intelligence-516980-2026-02-19
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-02
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Don't work on LLMs. [These models are] in the hands of large companies, there's nothing you can bring to the table. You should work on next-gen AI systems that lift the limitations of LLMs.
  author: Yann LeCun
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI scientist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-02
    publisher: newsweek.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.newsweek.com/nw-ai/ai-impact-interview-yann-lecun-artificial-intelligence-2054237
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-02
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: An LLM produces one token after another. It goes through a fixed amount of computation to produce a token, and that's clearly System 1—it's reactive, right? There's no reasoning.
  author: Yann LeCun
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI scientist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-02
    publisher: newsweek.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.newsweek.com/nw-ai/ai-impact-interview-yann-lecun-artificial-intelligence-2054237
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-09
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Basing agentic systems on LLMs is a recipe for disaster
  author: Yann LeCun
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI scientist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-09
    publisher: medium.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://medium.com/data-science-collective/yann-lecun-building-ai-agents-on-llms-is-a-recipe-for-disaster-heres-his-alternative-0e521b2bed6c
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-18
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: all of those companies are losing money, and basically, the use for most people is funded by the investors.
  author: Yann LeCun
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI scientist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-18
    publisher: thenextweb.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://thenextweb.com/news/yann-lecun-xai-failure-ai-bubble-explosion
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-18
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: are going to have to increase prices, they're going to have to cut costs, or there's going to be a big bubble explosion
  author: Yann LeCun
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI scientist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-18
    publisher: thenextweb.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://thenextweb.com/news/yann-lecun-xai-failure-ai-bubble-explosion
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-18
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The prices are going up… but the cost of running them is going down, but not nearly fast enough.
  author: Yann LeCun
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI scientist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-18
    publisher: thenextweb.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://thenextweb.com/news/yann-lecun-xai-failure-ai-bubble-explosion
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-18
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Dario is wrong. He knows absolutely nothing about the effects of technological revolutions on the labor market.
  author: Yann LeCun
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI scientist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-18
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/knows-nothing-about-labour-markets-yann-lecun-says-dario-amodei-is-wrong-about-ai-disrupting-50-of-white-collar-jobs/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-18
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Don't listen to him, Sam, Yoshua, Geoff, or me on this topic. Listen to economists who have spent their career studying this, like @Ph_Aghion, @erikbryn...
  author: Yann LeCun
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI scientist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-18
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/knows-nothing-about-labour-markets-yann-lecun-says-dario-amodei-is-wrong-about-ai-disrupting-50-of-white-collar-jobs/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-19
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think the most interesting thing that we're going to build is an amplifier for human intelligence.
  author: Yann LeCun
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI scientist
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-19
    publisher: businesstoday.in
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/story/india-ai-impact-summit-2026-yann-lecun-calls-agi-overhyped-ai-should-amplify-human-intelligence-516980-2026-02-19
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-10
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Spatial intelligence will transform how we create and interact with real and virtual worlds—revolutionizing storytelling, creativity, robotics, scientific discovery, and beyond. This is AI's next frontier.
  author: Fei-Fei Li
    type: Person
    job title: foundation AI capability principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-10
    publisher: drfeifei.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://drfeifei.substack.com/p/from-words-to-worlds-spatial-intelligence
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-10
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Yet they remain wordsmiths in the dark; eloquent but inexperienced, knowledgeable but ungrounded.
  author: Fei-Fei Li
    type: Person
    job title: foundation AI capability principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-10
    publisher: drfeifei.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://drfeifei.substack.com/p/from-words-to-worlds-spatial-intelligence
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-10
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The vision of autonomous robots remains intriguing but speculative, far from the fixtures of daily life that futurists have long promised.
  author: Fei-Fei Li
    type: Person
    job title: foundation AI capability principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-10
    publisher: drfeifei.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://drfeifei.substack.com/p/from-words-to-worlds-spatial-intelligence
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-10
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: robots and multimodal systems still struggle with grounded spatial reasoning, leaving them unable to judge distances and scene changes, or to predict basic physical outcomes
  author: Fei-Fei Li
    type: Person
    job title: foundation AI capability principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-10
    publisher: decrypt.co
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://decrypt.co/348051/ai-progress-now-depends-world-models-grasp-physical-reality
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-01
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Technologies do change the landscape of labor
  author: Fei-Fei Li
    type: Person
    job title: foundation AI capability principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-01
    publisher: bloomberg.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-fei-fei-li-weekend-interview/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-01
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Technologies do change the landscape of labor
  author: Fei-Fei Li
    type: Person
    job title: foundation AI capability principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-01
    publisher: bloomberg.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-fei-fei-li-weekend-interview/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-10
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I would not hire any software engineer who does not embrace AI collaborative software tools
  author: Fei-Fei Li
    type: Person
    job title: foundation AI capability principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-10
    publisher: tim.blog
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tim.blog/2025/12/10/dr-fei-fei-li-the-godmother-of-ai-transcript/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-09
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: GPT-5 is just the latest incremental advance. And it felt rushed at that.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-09
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-09
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: GPT-5 is barely better than last month's flavor of the month (Grok 4); on some metrics it's actually worse.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-09
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-09
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: GPT-5 still fails in all the same qualitative ways as its predecessors, on chess, on reasoning, in vision.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-09
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-09
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: General purpose agents that turn out to suck so badly people struggle to find real-world use cases.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-09
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-29
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The same problems have continued to plague every single model since—from GPT 4.0 to GPT 4.1 to GPT 4.5 and GPT-5
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-29
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-26
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: If September 2025 was peak bubble, 2026 will likely the year which it all falls apart.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-26
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-26
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: If September 2025 was peak bubble, 2026 will likely the year which it all falls apart.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-26
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-26
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: But the economics don't make sense, and never will, in large part because of the core technical problems that I have stressed repeatedly here and elsewhere since 2019.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-26
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-29
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The growth in adoption really does seem to be slowing.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-29
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-29
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: large language models have become a commodity
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-29
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-05
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In many cases AI may be serving as a fig leaf to cover layoffs that are actually driven by financial underperformance or earlier overhiring.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-05
    publisher: futurism.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-jobs-automation-expert
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-05
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In many cases AI may be serving as a fig leaf to cover layoffs that are actually driven by financial underperformance or earlier overhiring.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-05
    publisher: futurism.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-jobs-automation-expert
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-05
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In many cases AI may be serving as a fig leaf to cover layoffs that are actually driven by financial underperformance or earlier overhiring.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-05
    publisher: futurism.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-jobs-automation-expert
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-20
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-20
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-20
variable measured: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-20
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-20
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-20
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-20
variable measured: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.
  author: Gary Marcus
    type: Person
    job title: NYU professor emeritus
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-20
    publisher: garymarcus.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-10
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The number of tasks that you can do within an enterprise, or as a user using generative AI systems, is definitely growing, and it's going to continue to grow.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-10
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/mistrals-ceo-says-reaching-agi-120110127.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-10
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The number of tasks that you can do within an enterprise, or as a user using generative AI systems, is definitely growing, and it's going to continue to grow.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-10
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/mistrals-ceo-says-reaching-agi-120110127.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-10
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We move from AI to AGI at some point, but that's a marketing move.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-10
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/mistrals-ceo-says-reaching-agi-120110127.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-30
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Scaling our infrastructure in Europe is critical to empower our customers and to ensure AI innovation and autonomy remain at the heart of Europe.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-30
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/30/mistral-ai-raises-830m-in-debt-to-set-up-a-data-center-near-paris/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-28
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Owning the chips may come, I think it should come at some point, but for now we are relying on Nvidia, which is a great partner to us, and we're testing a few things here and there.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-28
    publisher: cnbc.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/mistral-arthur-mensch-design-chips-ai-data-centers.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-30
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Scaling our infrastructure in Europe is critical to empower our customers and to ensure AI innovation and autonomy remain at the heart of Europe.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-30
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/30/mistral-ai-raises-830m-in-debt-to-set-up-a-data-center-near-paris/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-12
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There's still a lot of viscosity in adoption in enterprises, which means that there's still … a lot of value creation to be had.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-12
    publisher: cnbc.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/tech-download-mistral-mensch-agentic-ai-chips.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-22
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We should exceed one billion in revenue by the end of the year.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-22
    publisher: maddyness.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.maddyness.com/uk/2026/01/23/mistral-ai-on-track-to-reach-one-billion-euros-in-revenue-by-2026/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-12
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There's still a lot of viscosity in adoption in enterprises, which means that there's still … a lot of value creation to be had.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-12
    publisher: cnbc.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/tech-download-mistral-mensch-agentic-ai-chips.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-28
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: lower the cost of deploying tokens to meaningful extents
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-28
    publisher: cnbc.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/mistral-arthur-mensch-design-chips-ai-data-centers.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-12
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There's still a lot of viscosity in adoption in enterprises, which means that there's still … a lot of value creation to be had.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-12
    publisher: cnbc.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/tech-download-mistral-mensch-agentic-ai-chips.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-24
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It will have an impact on GDP of every country in the double digits in the coming years
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-24
    publisher: slashdot.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://slashdot.org/story/25/03/24/1527230/ai-will-impact-gdp-of-every-country-by-double-digits-says-mistral-ceo
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-12
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Enterprises should be looking at how to re-orchestrate all of the people that are involved in that process around an AI system.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-12
    publisher: capwolf.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://capwolf.com/mistral-ceo-arthur-mensch-on-agentic-ai-custom-chips-and-enterprise-reality/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-12
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: It will be decided in the next two years.
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-12
    publisher: cybernews.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://cybernews.com/ai-news/europe-vassal-state/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-04
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: in a workable state
  author: Arthur Mensch
    type: Person
    job title: open weight lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-04
    publisher: mlex.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.mlex.com/mlex/articles/2305582/eu-s-ai-regulation-is-far-from-ideal-but-is-workable-mistral-ceo-says
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: [W]e are building models at the frontier of capabilities in domains like science and programming
  author: Mira Murati
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/18/thinking-machines-lab-is-ex-openai-cto-mira-muratis-new-startup/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the most advanced models will unlock the most transformative applications and benefits, such as enabling novel scientific discoveries and engineering breakthroughs
  author: Mira Murati
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/18/thinking-machines-lab-is-ex-openai-cto-mira-muratis-new-startup/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-12
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: this is still early innings. We've built some very useful things, we're seeing some great properties, these scaling laws seem to be working.
  author: Satya Nadella
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-12
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-12
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I'm optimistic that they'll continue to work. Some of it does require real science breakthroughs, but it's also a lot of engineering
  author: Satya Nadella
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-12
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-12
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The second world is the company just literally provisions a computing resource for an AI agent, and that is working fully autonomously.
  author: Satya Nadella
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-12
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-02-19
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There will be an overbuild
  author: Satya Nadella
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-02-19
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-29
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's power
  author: Satya Nadella
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-29
    publisher: tomshardware.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/microsoft-ceo-says-the-company-doesnt-have-enough-electricity-to-install-all-the-ai-gpus-in-its-inventory-you-may-actually-have-a-bun…
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-29
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It's not a supply issue of chips; it's actually the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into.
  author: Satya Nadella
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-29
    publisher: tomshardware.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/microsoft-ceo-says-the-company-doesnt-have-enough-electricity-to-install-all-the-ai-gpus-in-its-inventory-you-may-actually-have-a-bun…
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-02-19
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I am thrilled that I'm going to be leasing a lot of capacity in '27, '28.
  author: Satya Nadella
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-02-19
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-30
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Cloud and AI is the driving force of business transformation across every industry and sector
  author: Satya Nadella
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-30
    publisher: microsoft.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2025-q4/press-release-webcast
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-30
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: this year, Azure surpassed $75 billion in revenue, up 34 percent, driven by growth across all workloads
  author: Satya Nadella
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-30
    publisher: microsoft.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2025-q4/press-release-webcast
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-12
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the coding assistant is that big in one year...the market expands massively
  author: Satya Nadella
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-12
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Now, we have fully autonomous agents, and you can hand over an entire project to them, and they can work 24/7.
  author: Satya Nadella
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: eu.36kr.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3647909750141700
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-25
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Alphabet emerges as one of the net winners in the AI race and remains the best positioned company to monetize and scale GenAI opportunities.
  author: Michael Nathanson
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-25
    publisher: entrepreneur.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/alphabet-is-the-most-valuable-company-not-nvidia-analyst/497581
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-06
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The truth is, we're at the dawn of a new technology shift and it's really hard to know the sustainability of top line.
  author: Michael Nathanson
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-06
    publisher: cnbc.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/google-microsoft-meta-amazon-ai-cash.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-25
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Alphabet emerges as one of the net winners in the AI race and remains the best positioned company to monetize and scale GenAI opportunities.
  author: Michael Nathanson
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-25
    publisher: entrepreneur.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/alphabet-is-the-most-valuable-company-not-nvidia-analyst/497581
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-25
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Alphabet emerges as one of the net winners in the AI race and remains the best positioned company to monetize and scale GenAI opportunities.
  author: Michael Nathanson
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-25
    publisher: finviz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finviz.com/news/179009/wall-street-says-alphabet-googl-could-become-worlds-most-valuable-company
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-25
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Google remains the one to beat in GenAI search.
  author: Michael Nathanson
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-25
    publisher: entrepreneur.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/alphabet-is-the-most-valuable-company-not-nvidia-analyst/497581
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The government is simply declining to make a decision on AI and copyright yet, when one is sorely needed.
  author: Ed Newton-Rex
    type: Person
    job title: creator rights / training data ethics
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: computerweekly.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366640523/UK-government-puts-brakes-on-opt-out-copyright-exemption-for-AI
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: If AI companies get the right to use the life's work of the world's creators for free, they'll do so by stoking governments' fears of losing the AI race.
  author: Ed Newton-Rex
    type: Person
    job title: creator rights / training data ethics
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: hollywoodreporter.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/creators-ai-copyright-battle-1236192627/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Only when the government commits to standing by existing copyright law will the market for licensing training data to AI developers be able to reach its full potential.
  author: Ed Newton-Rex
    type: Person
    job title: creator rights / training data ethics
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: computerweekly.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366640523/UK-government-puts-brakes-on-opt-out-copyright-exemption-for-AI
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-30
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Reasoning ability significantly improves the performance of LLMs, but better output comes with a cost.
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-30
    publisher: eu.36kr.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3617702870516739
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-30
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Reasoning models also help agents handle complex problems.
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-30
    publisher: eu.36kr.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3617702870516739
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-27
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The tricky thing about AI is that it is amazing and it is also highly limited
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-27
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/ai-pioneer-says-technology-limited-110000521.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-25
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Although these applications perform well in demonstrations, they still have a long way to go before they can be put into large-scale production
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-25
    publisher: eu.36kr.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3438070821653888
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-25
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: the 'computer-using' ability can be successful in some scenarios, but the failure rate is still not low
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-25
    publisher: eu.36kr.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3438070821653888
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-27
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I don't think we're overbuilding right now, but if any part of the AI market faces that possibility, it's the training layer.
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-27
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/andrew-ng-says-agi-decades-110000122.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-27
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Many companies are not yet seeing strong returns, they continue to invest because they understand that AI will eventually deliver value.
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-27
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/andrew-ng-says-agi-decades-110000122.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-17
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the real business opportunity in AI lies in the application layer
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-17
    publisher: eu.36kr.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3387152985446529
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-27
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Many companies are not yet seeing strong returns, they continue to invest because they understand that AI will eventually deliver value.
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-27
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/andrew-ng-says-agi-decades-110000122.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-17
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the application layer is the hub connecting technology and the market, with the highest value density.
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-17
    publisher: eu.36kr.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3387152985446529
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-27
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: People that use AI to write code will just be more productive...than people that don't
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-27
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/ai-pioneer-says-technology-limited-110000521.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-27
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: as coding becomes easier...more people should code, not fewer
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-27
    publisher: aol.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.aol.com/ai-pioneer-says-technology-limited-110000521.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-11
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: While there is a role for AI regulation, it is when the technology is new and poorly understood that
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-11
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/AndrewYNg/status/1943710282381180934
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-11
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I'm disappointed it didn't include a proposed moratorium on U.S. state-level AI regulation.
  author: Andrew Ng
    type: Person
    job title: application layer builder educator investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-11
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/AndrewYNg/status/1943710282381180934
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-30
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: If the models don't improve, yes, we will overbuild, right? Like, it's pretty simple.
  author: Dylan Patel
    type: Person
    job title: semiconductor supply chain analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-30
    publisher: singjupost.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://singjupost.com/transcript-inside-the-trillion-dollar-ai-buildout-dylan-patel-on-invest-like-the-best-podcast/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-28
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Google announced 180 billion of CapEx. The stock went down and then Amazon announced 200 billion of CapEx and their stock went down, like, I wanna say like 10%.
  author: Dylan Patel
    type: Person
    job title: semiconductor supply chain analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-28
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Is there a bubble? Are we doing too much?
  author: Dylan Patel
    type: Person
    job title: semiconductor supply chain analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-28
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: And people just have not built these fabs yet. Right.
  author: Dylan Patel
    type: Person
    job title: semiconductor supply chain analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-28
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There's no reason why Google will have any profit, uh, in 27 at all. Right? In terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make on, on AI infrastructure.
  author: Dylan Patel
    type: Person
    job title: semiconductor supply chain analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-30
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Yes, this CapEx is crazy, but I'm not doubling my hardware every two months, but I'm doubling my tokens every two months.
  author: Dylan Patel
    type: Person
    job title: semiconductor supply chain analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-30
    publisher: singjupost.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://singjupost.com/transcript-inside-the-trillion-dollar-ai-buildout-dylan-patel-on-invest-like-the-best-podcast/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-28
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There's no reason why Google will have any profit, uh, in 27 at all. Right? In terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make on, on AI infrastructure.
  author: Dylan Patel
    type: Person
    job title: semiconductor supply chain analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-28
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Anthropic added two and a half billion of revenue, um, and their gross margin is 40%.
  author: Dylan Patel
    type: Person
    job title: semiconductor supply chain analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-28
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Anthropic added two and a half billion of revenue, um, and their gross margin is 40%.
  author: Dylan Patel
    type: Person
    job title: semiconductor supply chain analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-30
variable measured: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: If I could have an intelligence as smart as a Google Senior engineer, that's $2 trillion of software value.
  author: Dylan Patel
    type: Person
    job title: semiconductor supply chain analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-30
    publisher: singjupost.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://singjupost.com/transcript-inside-the-trillion-dollar-ai-buildout-dylan-patel-on-invest-like-the-best-podcast/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-23
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: If the current trajectory of AI spending continues, it could exceed 100% of salary expenses by the end of the year.
  author: Dylan Patel
    type: Person
    job title: semiconductor supply chain analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-23
    publisher: cryptobriefing.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://cryptobriefing.com/dylan-patel-unbounded-demand-for-ai-tools-is-reshaping-budgets-ai-spending-could-exceed-salary-expenses-and-workforce-efficiency-is-drastically-changing-invest-like-the-best…
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-20
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Elo scores, a measure of progress, are up more than 300 points since our first-generation Gemini Pro model.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-20
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/ai/io-2025-keynote/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-04
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Gemini 3 Pro has consistently processed three times as many daily tokens on average as 2.5 Pro.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-04
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-20
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We're introducing an enhanced reasoning mode we're calling Deep Think.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-20
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/ai/io-2025-keynote/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-20
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We think of agents as systems that combine the intelligence of advanced AI models with access to tools, so they can take actions on your behalf and under your control.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-20
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/ai/io-2025-keynote/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-20
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We think of agents as systems that combine the intelligence of advanced AI models with access to tools, so they can take actions on your behalf and under your control.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-20
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/ai/io-2025-keynote/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-04
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Our 2026 CapEx investments are anticipated to be in the range of $175 to $185 billion.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-04
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-18
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There are moments we overshoot, right, collectively as an industry
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-18
    publisher: malaymail.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.malaymail.com/news/tech-gadgets/2025/11/19/google-boss-warns-no-one-escapes-if-the-ai-bubble-bursts-including-us/198885
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-04
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have the industry's widest variety of compute options. That includes GPUs from our partner NVIDIA... Plus, our own TPUs that we've been developing for a decade.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-04
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-18
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think no company is going to be immune, including us
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-18
    publisher: thehill.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5610860-ai-boom-irrationality-sundar-pichai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-04
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In Q4, revenue from products built on our generative AI models grew nearly 400% year-over-year.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-04
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-04
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Cloud significantly accelerated with revenues growing 48%, now on an annual run rate of over $70 billion.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-04
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-04
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have sold more than eight million paid seats of Gemini Enterprise, which we launched just four months ago.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-04
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-04
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have sold more than eight million paid seats of Gemini Enterprise, which we launched just four months ago.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-04
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-04
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we were able to lower Gemini serving unit costs by 78% over 2025 through model optimizations, efficiency and utilization improvements.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-04
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-04
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In Q4, revenue from products built on our generative AI models grew nearly 400% year-over-year.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-04
    publisher: blog.google
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-18
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: AI is the most profound technology humanity is ever working on, and it has potential for extraordinary benefits, and we will have to work through societal disruption.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-18
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/12/02/ai-wipes-jobs-google-ceo-sundar-pichai-everyday-people-to-adapt-accordingly-we-have-to-work-through-societal-disruption/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-18
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It doesn't matter whether you want to be a teacher, a doctor—all those professions will be around, but the people who will do well in each of those professions are people who learn how to use these tools.
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-18
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/12/02/ai-wipes-jobs-google-ceo-sundar-pichai-everyday-people-to-adapt-accordingly-we-have-to-work-through-societal-disruption/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-30
variable measured: Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: every aspect of our technology
  author: Sundar Pichai
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler ceo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-30
    publisher: npr.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.npr.org/2025/04/30/nx-s1-5382294/sundar-pichai-google-antitrust-testimony
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-12
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: These findings start to establish a baseline for the way humans and AI systems will evolve together in the coming years, particularly as we draw nearer and nearer to artificial general intelligence.
  author: Lee Rainie
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-12
    publisher: elon.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.elon.edu/u/news/2025/03/12/survey-52-of-u-s-adults-now-use-ai-large-language-models-like-chatgpt/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-02
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: They anticipate that AI systems will keep encroaching on and surpassing some fundamental human intelligences and they worry this will be demoralizing and debilitating for us.
  author: Lee Rainie
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-02
    publisher: elon.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.elon.edu/u/news/2025/04/02/report-technology-experts-worry-about-the-future-of-being-human-in-the-ai-age/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-12
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: By any measure, the adoption and use of LLMs is astounding. I am especially struck by the ways these tools are being woven into people's social lives.
  author: Lee Rainie
    type: Person
    job title: public opinion
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-12
    publisher: elon.edu
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.elon.edu/u/news/2025/03/12/survey-52-of-u-s-adults-now-use-ai-large-language-models-like-chatgpt/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-29
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: agentic systems will not be deployed unless they become as trusted as human experts—and learning only from public internet data can’t possibly get us to this level of accuracy and trust, no matter how advanced the underlying LLMs become.
  author: Alex Ratner
    type: Person
    job title: data development + agent evaluation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-29
    publisher: snorkel.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://snorkel.ai/blog/building-the-ai-data-development-platform-for-specialized-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-29
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: agentic systems will not be deployed unless they become as trusted as human experts—and learning only from public internet data can’t possibly get us to this level of accuracy and trust, no matter how advanced the underlying LLMs become.
  author: Alex Ratner
    type: Person
    job title: data development + agent evaluation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-29
    publisher: snorkel.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://snorkel.ai/blog/building-the-ai-data-development-platform-for-specialized-ai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-29
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: We are seeing a surge of momentum around agentic AI, but specialized enterprise agents aren't ready for production in most settings.
  author: Alex Ratner
    type: Person
    job title: data development + agent evaluation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-29
    publisher: businesswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250529083998/en/Snorkel-AI-Announces-$100-Million-Series-D-and-Expanded-Platform-to-Power-Next-Phase-of-AI-with-Expert-Data
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-22
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: These systems will not be deployed unless they become as trusted as human experts.
  author: Alex Ratner
    type: Person
    job title: data development + agent evaluation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-22
    publisher: blogs.microsoft.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blogs.microsoft.com/bayarea/2025/07/22/ai-startups-bridging-the-gap-from-research-breakthroughs-to-real-world-impact/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-29
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Enterprises need domain-specific data and expertise to make this a reality. We're excited to deliver on this need and help AI innovators develop expert data to bring their LLM and agentic systems into production with our new offerings, which round out Snorkel's unified AI data development stack.
  author: Alex Ratner
    type: Person
    job title: data development + agent evaluation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-29
    publisher: businesswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250529083998/en/Snorkel-AI-Announces-$100-Million-Series-D-and-Expanded-Platform-to-Power-Next-Phase-of-AI-with-Expert-Data
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-29
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Enterprises need domain-specific data and expertise to make this a reality. We're excited to deliver on this need and help AI innovators develop expert data to bring their LLM and agentic systems into production with our new offerings, which round out Snorkel's unified AI data development stack.
  author: Alex Ratner
    type: Person
    job title: data development + agent evaluation
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-29
    publisher: businesswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250529083998/en/Snorkel-AI-Announces-$100-Million-Series-D-and-Expanded-Platform-to-Power-Next-Phase-of-AI-with-Expert-Data
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-17
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: A lot of these claims are premature. Many of the people making them have an interest in selling a product, so you have to take them with a grain of salt.
  author: Pascual Restrepo
    type: Person
    job title: Pascual Restrepo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-17
    publisher: phys.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://phys.org/news/2026-03-expert-opinion-ai-automation-future.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-17
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: You cannot automate everything tomorrow because we simply don't have enough computing power to do it.
  author: Pascual Restrepo
    type: Person
    job title: Pascual Restrepo
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-17
    publisher: phys.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://phys.org/news/2026-03-expert-opinion-ai-automation-future.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-12
variable measured: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Looking ahead to 2026, lawmakers are expected to broaden their approach beyond punishing individual creators and distributors of deepfakes to include entities that enable production and dissemination, such as generative AI platforms, payment processors, hosting platforms, and cloud providers.
  author: Max Rieper
    type: Person
    job title: Max Rieper
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-12
    publisher: multistate.us
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.multistate.us/insider/2026/2/12/how-ai-generated-content-laws-are-changing-across-the-country
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-17
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Inference is defining this era of AI, and we're building the American infrastructure that delivers it with high speed and low cost.
  author: Jonathan Ross
    type: Person
    job title: Groq founder and CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-17
    publisher: groq.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-raises-750-million-as-inference-demand-surges
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-18
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There isn't enough compute for AI to benefit everyone. We're partnering with the White House and the Department of Energy to change that.
  author: Jonathan Ross
    type: Person
    job title: Groq founder and CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-18
    publisher: groq.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-partners-with-us-department-of-energy-to-advance-ai-inference-and-next-generation-computing-infrastructure
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-18
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There isn't enough compute for AI to benefit everyone. We're partnering with the White House and the Department of Energy to change that.
  author: Jonathan Ross
    type: Person
    job title: Groq founder and CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-18
    publisher: groq.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-partners-with-us-department-of-energy-to-advance-ai-inference-and-next-generation-computing-infrastructure
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-18
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There isn't enough compute for AI to benefit everyone. We're partnering with the White House and the Department of Energy to change that.
  author: Jonathan Ross
    type: Person
    job title: Groq founder and CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-18
    publisher: groq.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-partners-with-us-department-of-energy-to-advance-ai-inference-and-next-generation-computing-infrastructure
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-17
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Inference is defining this era of AI, and we're building the American infrastructure that delivers it with high speed and low cost.
  author: Jonathan Ross
    type: Person
    job title: Groq founder and CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-17
    publisher: groq.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-raises-750-million-as-inference-demand-surges
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-17
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Inference is defining this era of AI, and we're building the American infrastructure that delivers it with high speed and low cost.
  author: Jonathan Ross
    type: Person
    job title: Groq founder and CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-17
    publisher: groq.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-raises-750-million-as-inference-demand-surges
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-17
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Inference is defining this era of AI, and we're building the American infrastructure that delivers it with high speed and low cost.
  author: Jonathan Ross
    type: Person
    job title: Groq founder and CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-17
    publisher: groq.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-raises-750-million-as-inference-demand-surges
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-19
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I believe that AI is going to cause massive labor shortages. I don't think we're going to have enough people to fill all the jobs that are going to be created.
  author: Jonathan Ross
    type: Person
    job title: Groq founder and CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-19
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/ai-will-lead-to-labour-shortages-create-new-jobs-groq-ceo-jonathan-ross/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-19
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I believe that AI is going to cause massive labor shortages. I don't think we're going to have enough people to fill all the jobs that are going to be created.
  author: Jonathan Ross
    type: Person
    job title: Groq founder and CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-19
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/ai-will-lead-to-labour-shortages-create-new-jobs-groq-ceo-jonathan-ross/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-19
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I believe that AI is going to cause massive labor shortages. I don't think we're going to have enough people to fill all the jobs that are going to be created.
  author: Jonathan Ross
    type: Person
    job title: Groq founder and CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-19
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/ai-will-lead-to-labour-shortages-create-new-jobs-groq-ceo-jonathan-ross/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The reason we don't have AGI is because we don't understand how to make it properly. What we've seized upon is one particular technology called the language model.
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I think we have far more computing power than we need for AGI, maybe a thousand times more than we need.
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The kind of AI systems we're building now, we don't understand how they work.
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: They are telling people that they are conscious, they are telling people that they have feelings.
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The budget for AGI is going to be a trillion dollars next year. So 50 times bigger than the Manhattan Project.
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The budget for AGI is going to be a trillion dollars next year. So 50 times bigger than the Manhattan Project.
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Now suddenly they're staring 80% unemployment in the face and wondering how on earth is our society going to hold together?
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Now suddenly they're staring 80% unemployment in the face and wondering how on earth is our society going to hold together?
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: AI systems are doing pretty much everything we currently call work, anything you might aspire to.
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: At the moment, the US Government in particular, which regulates most of the leading companies in AI, is not only refusing to regulate, but even trying to prevent the states from regulating.
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: At the moment, the US Government in particular, which regulates most of the leading companies in AI, is not only refusing to regulate, but even trying to prevent the states from regulating.
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: At the moment, the US Government in particular, which regulates most of the leading companies in AI, is not only refusing to regulate, but even trying to prevent the states from regulating.
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: He's talked to the governments and they won't do it.
  author: Stuart Russell
    type: Person
    job title: ai safety governance
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: youtube.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The Doomer narratives were wrong
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/08/11/artificial-intelligence-job-loss-overhyped-david-sacks-doomer-narrative-goldilocks/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have 5 major American companies vigorously competing on frontier models. This brings out the best in everyone and helps America win the AI race.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/08/11/artificial-intelligence-job-loss-overhyped-david-sacks-doomer-narrative-goldilocks/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Models need context, they must be heavily prompted, the output must be verified, and this process must be repeated iteratively to achieve meaningful business value.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/08/11/artificial-intelligence-job-loss-overhyped-david-sacks-doomer-narrative-goldilocks/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-20
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The key to building new data centers is easier permitting and more power generation, both of which were effectively impossible under the Biden administration.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-20
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1924817118370951238
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-20
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The key to building new data centers is easier permitting and more power generation, both of which were effectively impossible under the Biden administration.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-20
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1924817118370951238
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There will be no federal bailout for AI. The U.S. has at least 5 major frontier model companies. If one fails, others will take its place.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1986476840207122440
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-04
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: At this point, stopping progress in AI would be equivalent to halting the U.S. economy.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-04
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/05/04/trump-ai-czar-david-sacks-american-gdp-economy/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-04
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In Q1, AI was already 75% of GDP growth. That trend is likely to continue.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-04
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/05/04/trump-ai-czar-david-sacks-american-gdp-economy/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-04
variable measured: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: AI capex will be a 2% tailwind to GDP growth
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-04
    publisher: finance.yahoo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/david-sacks-says-ai-could-220110765.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-11
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Personally, I don't think it's going to lead to a giant wave of unemployment.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-11
    publisher: cnn.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/11/tech/trump-ai-czar-jobs-artificial-intelligence
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Rather than causing job loss, AI is making workers more productive, driving gains in both jobs and wages
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/12/49500101/trump-ai-czar-david-sacks-debunks-ai-linked-job-losses-as-vanguard-study-shows-wage-hiring-boost-ai-job-loss-hoax-exposed
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-11
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think it's easier to replace pieces of it.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-11
    publisher: cnn.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/11/tech/trump-ai-czar-jobs-artificial-intelligence
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The one that I think is probably the most excessive is this Colorado law that seeks to prohibit algorithmic discrimination.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: bloomberg.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-12-12/white-house-ai-czar-sacks-on-trump-s-ai-executive-order-video
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C5.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-20
variable measured: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The key to building new data centers is easier permitting and more power generation, both of which were effectively impossible under the Biden administration.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-20
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1924817118370951238
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: We have 5 major American companies vigorously competing on frontier models. This brings out the best in everyone and helps America win the AI race.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/08/11/artificial-intelligence-job-loss-overhyped-david-sacks-doomer-narrative-goldilocks/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The one that I think is probably the most excessive is this Colorado law that seeks to prohibit algorithmic discrimination.
  author: David Sacks
    type: Person
    job title: capital allocation + ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: bloomberg.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-12-12/white-house-ai-czar-sacks-on-trump-s-ai-executive-order-video
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-12
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Few clinical AI systems can reason across the full breadth of messy, real-world hospital data and deliver guidance clinicians can reliably act on.
  author: Suchi Saria
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deploy and validate operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-12
    publisher: medicalxpress.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2026-05-fda-early-sepsis.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: With this kind of infrastructure, instead of doing three experiments at a time, we're doing a thousand experiments at a time—but we're not even doing experiments; we're learning from existing data.
  author: Suchi Saria
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deploy and validate operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: medicalxpress.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-11-machine-optimize-treatment-septic.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-12
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: FDA clearance is a critical milestone, and it's also the consequence of years spent validating that this fits into clinician workflows and helps them get ahead of deterioration instead of reacting to it.
  author: Suchi Saria
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deploy and validate operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-12
    publisher: prnewswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bayesian-health-receives-first-ever-fda-clearance-for-continuous-ai-sepsis-monitoring-302769190.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-12
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Few clinical AI systems can reason across the full breadth of messy, real-world hospital data and deliver guidance clinicians can reliably act on.
  author: Suchi Saria
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deploy and validate operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-12
    publisher: medicalxpress.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2026-05-fda-early-sepsis.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-12
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Proactive, continuous monitoring saves lives. It should be the standard in every hospital.
  author: Suchi Saria
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deploy and validate operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-12
    publisher: prnewswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bayesian-health-receives-first-ever-fda-clearance-for-continuous-ai-sepsis-monitoring-302769190.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-12
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: What's been missing is a real-time intelligence layer that can continuously interpret that data and help clinicians act earlier.
  author: Suchi Saria
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deploy and validate operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-12
    publisher: prnewswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bayesian-health-receives-first-ever-fda-clearance-for-continuous-ai-sepsis-monitoring-302769190.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-12
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Health systems have spent decades building the digital foundation of care through platforms like their EHR. What's been missing is a real-time intelligence layer that can continuously interpret that data and help clinicians act earlier.
  author: Suchi Saria
    type: Person
    job title: clinical AI deploy and validate operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-12
    publisher: prnewswire.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bayesian-health-receives-first-ever-fda-clearance-for-continuous-ai-sepsis-monitoring-302769190.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There's a study that says that we will, under the set of assumptions around agentic AI and discovery and the scale that I'm describing, there's a lot of assumptions that you'll end up with something like 30% increase in productivity per year.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: singjupost.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://singjupost.com/transcript-of-the-ai-revolution-is-underhyped-eric-schmidt/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: you have something called super intelligence. And super intelligence is the intelligence that's higher than of humans.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: techpolicy.press
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-us-lawmakers-probe-ais-role-in-energy-and-climate/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: we're very, very quickly, for example, developing AI programmers and these AI programmers will replace traditional software programmers.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: techpolicy.press
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-us-lawmakers-probe-ais-role-in-energy-and-climate/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The eventual state of this is the computers running all business processes. So you have an agent to do this, an agent to do this, an agent to do this, an agent to this. And you concatenate them together and they speak language among each other.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: singjupost.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://singjupost.com/transcript-of-the-ai-revolution-is-underhyped-eric-schmidt/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: people are planning 10 gigawatt data centers.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: techpolicy.press
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-us-lawmakers-probe-ais-role-in-energy-and-climate/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: We need another 90 gigawatts of power in America... 90 gigawatts is 90 nuclear power plants in America. Not happening.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: singjupost.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://singjupost.com/transcript-of-the-ai-revolution-is-underhyped-eric-schmidt/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-01
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: How many companies, countries, and so forth can hand an industry a trillion dollars of capital?
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-01
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/the-real-limit-to-ai-is-not-energy-but-cash-former-google-ceo-eric-schmidt/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: So my advice to you all is ride the wave, but ride it every day.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: singjupost.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://singjupost.com/transcript-of-the-ai-revolution-is-underhyped-eric-schmidt/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The eventual state of this is the computers running all business processes.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: ted.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.ted.com/talks/eric_schmidt_the_ai_revolution_is_underhyped
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: If anything, it's under-hyped because you are fundamentally automating businesses.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: dnyuz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://dnyuz.com/2025/12/03/ex-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-says-ai-isnt-overhyped-the-biggest-gains-from-automating-corporate-work-are-still-ahead/ ; https://www.indexbox.io/blog/former-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-argues-ai-is-under-hyped-amid-bubble-debate/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: there's no question there's job losses, but for every job loss, there's probably more than one job created. There'll be more jobs created than jobs lost.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: thenationalnews.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2025/10/30/ai-jobs-creation-google-eric-schmidt/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: for every job loss, there's probably more than one job created. There'll be more jobs created than jobs lost.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: thenationalnews.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2025/10/30/ai-jobs-creation-google-eric-schmidt/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI increases capacity, if you will. So why would you implement an AI system if you're running a business? You would do it to make more money
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: thenationalnews.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2025/10/30/ai-jobs-creation-google-eric-schmidt/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have a similar problem in America in that the overlapping set of local, federal, state rules, which were done with good intentions, have the property that they're slowing things down.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: techpolicy.press
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-us-lawmakers-probe-ais-role-in-energy-and-climate/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Well, the primary issue is overregulation.
  author: Eric Schmidt
    type: Person
    job title: ai statecraft
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: techpolicy.press
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-us-lawmakers-probe-ais-role-in-energy-and-climate/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-06
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI is not the metaverse.
  author: Eric Seufert
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-06
    publisher: mobiledevmemo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://mobiledevmemo.com/ai-is-not-the-metaverse/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-03
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: agents cannot complete transactions without human review, and they must integrate Shop Pay to make purchases.
  author: Eric Seufert
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-03
    publisher: mobiledevmemo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://mobiledevmemo.com/agentic-commerce-is-a-mirage/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-02
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the total automation of digital advertising through AI enablement presents a radically economically expansive opportunity
  author: Eric Seufert
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-02
    publisher: mobiledevmemo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://mobiledevmemo.com/commerce-at-the-limit/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-01
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: if maximizing revenue is an organization's objective function and its product can potentially reach billions of users, then advertising stands alone as its optimal monetization strategy.
  author: Eric Seufert
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-01
    publisher: mobiledevmemo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://mobiledevmemo.com/obviously-openai-will-monetize-with-ads/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-08-13
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The improved efficiency delivered through applications of AI to digital advertising may result in lower global ad load.
  author: Eric Seufert
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-08-13
    publisher: mobiledevmemo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://mobiledevmemo.com/will-ai-efficiency-impact-ad-load/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-24
variable measured: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: AI enablement across targeting, creative production, and campaign automation will have two expansionary effects on the advertising economy: I argue in that podcast that the benefits of these AI-enabled tools will primarily materialize for small businesses.
  author: Eric Seufert
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-24
    publisher: mobiledevmemo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://mobiledevmemo.com/ai-enabled-advertising-and-the-sparse-data-consumer/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-02
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the introduction of every business that could potentially derive value from it to the digital advertising economy
  author: Eric Seufert
    type: Person
    job title: ad media analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-02
    publisher: mobiledevmemo.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://mobiledevmemo.com/commerce-at-the-limit/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It will be the decade of AI agents.
  author: Dharmesh Shah
    type: Person
    job title: smb saas ai founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: trooinbound.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.trooinbound.com/blog/you-to-the-power-of-ai-key-takeaways-from-dharmesh-shah-at-inbound-25/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-28
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I'm a pragmatist, so I think of the state of the practical. It's like, okay, well, what can I actually build that has commercial value or solves actually some discrete problem with some baseline of repeatability or verifiability?
  author: Dharmesh Shah
    type: Person
    job title: smb saas ai founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dharmesh
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-28
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: what can I actually build that has commercial value or solves actually some discrete problem with some baseline of repeatability or verifiability?
  author: Dharmesh Shah
    type: Person
    job title: smb saas ai founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dharmesh
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-28
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: inference costs are going down. At least I so I tell myself late at night so I can sleep.
  author: Dharmesh Shah
    type: Person
    job title: smb saas ai founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dharmesh
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-28
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the most popular use case on the kind of agent side right now is like customer support.
  author: Dharmesh Shah
    type: Person
    job title: smb saas ai founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dharmesh
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the future of work is not humans competing against AI but humans achieving more with AI
  author: Dharmesh Shah
    type: Person
    job title: smb saas ai founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: trooinbound.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.trooinbound.com/blog/you-to-the-power-of-ai-key-takeaways-from-dharmesh-shah-at-inbound-25/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-28
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think the value of an engineer actually goes up. They're going to have the power tools, they're going to be able to solve a larger base of problems.
  author: Dharmesh Shah
    type: Person
    job title: smb saas ai founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-28
    publisher: latent.space
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.latent.space/p/dharmesh
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-26
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It finally feels like I have a swarm of agents working for me. I know that's a buzzword that everyone uses, but this is the first moment I've actually felt it.
  author: Aravind Srinivas
    type: Person
    job title: ai product lab CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-26
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/02/26/perplexity-ceo-aravind-srinivas-computer-openclaw-ai-agent/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-26
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It finally feels like I have a swarm of agents working for me. I know that's a buzzword that everyone uses, but this is the first moment I've actually felt it.
  author: Aravind Srinivas
    type: Person
    job title: ai product lab CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-26
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/02/26/perplexity-ceo-aravind-srinivas-computer-openclaw-ai-agent/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-26
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Perplexity has crossed $100m in annualized revenue. This does *not* include any free trial, be it consumer, enterprise or API. Took us 20 months to get here since we first launched Perplexity Pro in 2023. 6.3x growth YoY and remains highly under monetized.
  author: Aravind Srinivas
    type: Person
    job title: ai product lab CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-26
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/AravSrinivas/status/1904912486035579176
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-26
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Perplexity has crossed $100m in annualized revenue. This does *not* include any free trial, be it consumer, enterprise or API. Took us 20 months to get here since we first launched Perplexity Pro in 2023. 6.3x growth YoY and remains highly under monetized.
  author: Aravind Srinivas
    type: Person
    job title: ai product lab CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-26
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/AravSrinivas/status/1904912486035579176
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-03
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: You hear companies saying, I am spending a ton of money on AI. And I know some great stuff is happening, but I know there's a ton of waste.
  author: Aravind Srinivas
    type: Person
    job title: ai product lab CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-03
    publisher: tekedia.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.tekedia.com/perplexity-ceo-aravind-srinivas-says-efficiency-will-separate-ai-winners-token-value-per-watt-per-user-becomes-the-deciding-metric/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-26
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Perplexity has crossed $100m in annualized revenue. This does *not* include any free trial, be it consumer, enterprise or API. Took us 20 months to get here since we first launched Perplexity Pro in 2023. 6.3x growth YoY and remains highly under monetized.
  author: Aravind Srinivas
    type: Person
    job title: ai product lab CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-26
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/AravSrinivas/status/1904912486035579176
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-01
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Even if there is temporary job displacement to deal with, that sort of glorious future is what we should look forward to.
  author: Aravind Srinivas
    type: Person
    job title: ai product lab CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-01
    publisher: breitbart.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2026/04/01/perplexity-ai-ceo-aravind-srinivas-ai-has-glorious-future-because-people-dont-enjoy-their-jobs/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-08
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: You are going to see disproportionate progress in these kinds of domains versus the others.
  author: Ion Stoica
    type: Person
    job title: open infrastructure + compound AI + agent reliability
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-08
    publisher: felicis.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.felicis.com/blog/academia-to-agentic-ai-ion-stoica-charles-packer-sarah-wooders-letta-databricks
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-08
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The more valuable a task is, the more reliable it has to be. There has to be a way to verify and, therefore, to specify these tasks.
  author: Ion Stoica
    type: Person
    job title: open infrastructure + compound AI + agent reliability
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-08
    publisher: felicis.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.felicis.com/blog/academia-to-agentic-ai-ion-stoica-charles-packer-sarah-wooders-letta-databricks
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-08
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The biggest challenge in AI is going to be to continue building reliable AI applications, period. You need an AI application you can trust, right?
  author: Ion Stoica
    type: Person
    job title: open infrastructure + compound AI + agent reliability
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-08
    publisher: felicis.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.felicis.com/blog/academia-to-agentic-ai-ion-stoica-charles-packer-sarah-wooders-letta-databricks
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the demands of this application, in particular AI applications and so forth, are growing much quicker than the capabilities of a single process or a single node, even if you considered accelerators.
  author: Ion Stoica
    type: Person
    job title: open infrastructure + compound AI + agent reliability
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: sequoiacap.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.sequoiacap.com/podcast/training-data-ion-stoica/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: As good as the models are today, the next one will be better
  author: Lisa Su
    type: Person
    job title: compute infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: techbuzz.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/amd-s-lisa-su-dismisses-ai-bubble-fears-as-overstated
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-04
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: As good as the models are today, the next one will be better
  author: Lisa Su
    type: Person
    job title: compute infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-04
    publisher: techbuzz.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/amd-s-lisa-su-dismisses-ai-bubble-fears-as-overstated
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-05
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We are seeing strong momentum as inferencing and agentic AI drive increasing demand for high-performance CPUs and accelerators
  author: Lisa Su
    type: Person
    job title: compute infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-05
    publisher: ir.amd.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-06
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: What we like to say is, the real challenge is how do we put AI infrastructure at yottascale?
  author: Lisa Su
    type: Person
    job title: compute infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-06
    publisher: nextplatform.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.nextplatform.com/2026/01/06/amd-contemplates-and-engineers-yottascale-ai-compute/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-05
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Looking ahead, we expect server growth to accelerate meaningfully as we scale supply to meet demand
  author: Lisa Su
    type: Person
    job title: compute infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-05
    publisher: ir.amd.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-11
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The demand is insatiable
  author: Lisa Su
    type: Person
    job title: compute infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-11
    publisher: cnbc.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/amd-lisa-su-growth-ai-analyst-day.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-05
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We delivered an outstanding first quarter, driven by accelerating demand for AI infrastructure
  author: Lisa Su
    type: Person
    job title: compute infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-05
    publisher: ir.amd.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-05
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Customer engagement around MI450 Series and Helios is strengthening, with leading customer forecasts exceeding our initial expectations
  author: Lisa Su
    type: Person
    job title: compute infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-05
    publisher: ir.amd.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-05
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We are seeing strong momentum as inferencing and agentic AI drive increasing demand for high-performance CPUs and accelerators
  author: Lisa Su
    type: Person
    job title: compute infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-05
    publisher: ir.amd.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-06
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It's not replacing people, it's actually just augmenting our productivity in terms of the number of products we can bring up at any given time
  author: Lisa Su
    type: Person
    job title: compute infrastructure
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-06
    publisher: itpro.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.itpro.com/business/business-strategy/amd-ceo-lisa-su-ai-recruitment-increase
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-08
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The skeptics keep predicting walls. And they keep being wrong.
  author: Mustafa Suleyman
    type: Person
    job title: Microsoft AI CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-08
    publisher: technologyreview.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/04/08/1135398/mustafa-suleyman-ai-future/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-08
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I take the opposite view and see no reason to believe the scaling laws are anywhere like finished.
  author: Mustafa Suleyman
    type: Person
    job title: Microsoft AI CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-08
    publisher: mustafa-suleyman.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://mustafa-suleyman.ai/the-exponential-compute-ramp
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-30
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Now MAI-DxO can solve some of the world's toughest open-ended cases with higher accuracy and lower costs.
  author: Mustafa Suleyman
    type: Person
    job title: Microsoft AI CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-30
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/mustafasuleyman/status/1939670330332868696
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-08
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I believe it will drive the transition from chatbots to nearly human-level agents—semiautonomous systems capable of writing code for days, carrying out weeks- and months-long projects, making calls, negotiating contracts, managing logistics.
  author: Mustafa Suleyman
    type: Person
    job title: Microsoft AI CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-08
    publisher: technologyreview.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/04/08/1135398/mustafa-suleyman-ai-future/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-01
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: No AI developer, no safety researcher, no policy expert, no person I've encountered has a reassuring answer to this question.
  author: Mustafa Suleyman
    type: Person
    job title: Microsoft AI CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-01
    publisher: project-syndicate.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/seemingly-conscious-ai-urgent-threat-tech-industry-must-address-by-mustafa-suleyman-2025-09
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-08
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: By the end of 2028, we are looking at another 1000x increase in effective compute.
  author: Mustafa Suleyman
    type: Person
    job title: Microsoft AI CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-08
    publisher: mustafa-suleyman.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://mustafa-suleyman.ai/the-exponential-compute-ramp
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-08
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: By 2030, it's plausible that we'll be bringing an additional 200 GW of compute online every year
  author: Mustafa Suleyman
    type: Person
    job title: Microsoft AI CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-08
    publisher: mustafa-suleyman.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://mustafa-suleyman.ai/the-exponential-compute-ramp
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-08
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The capital is deployed. The engineering is delivering.
  author: Mustafa Suleyman
    type: Person
    job title: Microsoft AI CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-08
    publisher: mustafa-suleyman.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://mustafa-suleyman.ai/the-exponential-compute-ramp
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-06
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It will be more valuable than anything we've ever known.
  author: Mustafa Suleyman
    type: Person
    job title: Microsoft AI CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-06
    publisher: microsoft.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://microsoft.ai/news/towards-humanist-superintelligence/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-13
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Most tasks that involve 'sitting down at a computer' will be fully automated by AI within the next year or 18 months
  author: Mustafa Suleyman
    type: Person
    job title: Microsoft AI CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-13
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2026/02/13/when-will-ai-kill-white-collar-office-jobs-18-months-microsoft-mustafa-suleyman/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-08
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: That does not necessarily mean that the role goes away at all. It just means that the work can be done faster.
  author: Mustafa Suleyman
    type: Person
    job title: Microsoft AI CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-08
    publisher: cryptobriefing.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://cryptobriefing.com/microsoft-suleyman-clarifies-ai-automation-comments/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: But now the scale is so big. Is the belief really, 'Oh, it's so big, but if you had 100x more, everything would be so different?' It would be different, for sure. But is the belief that if you just 100x the scale, everything would be transformed? I don't think that's true.
  author: Ilya Sutskever
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab research principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: But is the belief that if you just 100x the scale, everything would be transformed? I don't think that's true.
  author: Ilya Sutskever
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab research principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: These models somehow just generalize dramatically worse than people. It's super obvious. That seems like a very fundamental thing.
  author: Ilya Sutskever
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab research principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: If you combine this with generalization of the models actually being inadequate, that has the potential to explain a lot of what we are seeing, this disconnect between eval performance and actual real-world performance.
  author: Ilya Sutskever
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab research principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: If you combine this with generalization of the models actually being inadequate, that has the potential to explain a lot of what we are seeing, this disconnect between eval performance and actual real-world performance.
  author: Ilya Sutskever
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab research principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I'm not sure because I think even with stalling out, I think these companies could make a stupendous revenue. Maybe not profits because they will need to work hard to differentiate each other from themselves, but revenue definitely.
  author: Ilya Sutskever
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab research principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I'm not sure because I think even with stalling out, I think these companies could make a stupendous revenue.
  author: Ilya Sutskever
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab research principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Maybe not profits because they will need to work hard to differentiate each other from themselves, but revenue definitely.
  author: Ilya Sutskever
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab research principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: there will be a strong force to deploy them in the economy unless there will be some kind of a regulation that stops it, which by the way there might be.
  author: Ilya Sutskever
    type: Person
    job title: frontier lab research principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: one in four
  author: Richard Sutton
    type: Person
    job title: RL foundational researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: ibm.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.ibm.com/think/news/turing-award-winner-on-agi
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: They are clearly a way of using massive computation, things that will scale with computation up to the limits of the Internet.
  author: Richard Sutton
    type: Person
    job title: RL foundational researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/richard-sutton
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: They have the ability to predict what a person would say. They don't have the ability to predict what will happen.
  author: Richard Sutton
    type: Person
    job title: RL foundational researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: dwarkesh.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/richard-sutton
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: We need agents that learn continually. We need world models and planning.
  author: Richard Sutton
    type: Person
    job title: RL foundational researcher
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: the-decoder.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://the-decoder.com/richard-sutton-says-the-ai-industry-has-lost-its-way-by-ignoring-core-principles-of-intelligence/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-04
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I am more excited about large language models and this current wave of technology more than any technology I can remember, perhaps since I discovered the internet when I was a teenager.
  author: Bret Taylor
    type: Person
    job title: agents as a service
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-04
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/04/openai-chairman-bret-taylor-lays-out-the-bull-case-for-ai-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-04
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think we're in this era now where these AI solutions are actually better than the alternative.
  author: Bret Taylor
    type: Person
    job title: agents as a service
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-04
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/04/openai-chairman-bret-taylor-lays-out-the-bull-case-for-ai-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-04
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Don't wait for the technology to be perfect. In fact, it may never be perfect — but narrow the domain that you're working on so you can take these intractable problems and make them solvable.
  author: Bret Taylor
    type: Person
    job title: agents as a service
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-04
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/04/openai-chairman-bret-taylor-lays-out-the-bull-case-for-ai-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-10
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We reached $100 million in ARR in seven quarters, $150 in eight quarters. We're, I think, around $165 now, one month into our next quarter.
  author: Bret Taylor
    type: Person
    job title: agents as a service
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-10
    publisher: cheekypint.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://cheekypint.substack.com/p/bret-taylor-of-sierra-on-ai-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-04
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think most companies, AI agents will actually be as significant as their website or their mobile app in terms of the percentage of interactions they have with their customers.
  author: Bret Taylor
    type: Person
    job title: agents as a service
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-04
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/04/openai-chairman-bret-taylor-lays-out-the-bull-case-for-ai-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-10
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Outcomes-based is pretty different than usage-based...I would argue there's not a strong correlation between token usage or utilization and value.
  author: Bret Taylor
    type: Person
    job title: agents as a service
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-10
    publisher: cheekypint.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://cheekypint.substack.com/p/bret-taylor-of-sierra-on-ai-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-04
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: And what's remarkable about these agents is people actually really like them.
  author: Bret Taylor
    type: Person
    job title: agents as a service
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-04
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/04/openai-chairman-bret-taylor-lays-out-the-bull-case-for-ai-agents
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-04
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: There's a really big addressable market and immediate opportunity. We've sort of digitized the last remaining analog channel, which is the telephone line — it's a better experience. You don't need to wait on hold. These agents are naturally multilingual.
  author: Bret Taylor
    type: Person
    job title: agents as a service
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-04
    publisher: techstartups.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techstartups.com/2026/05/04/bret-taylors-ai-startup-sierra-raises-950m-at-15-8b-valuation-as-demand-for-ai-agents-surges/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-01
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It's wrong to think about AI as replacing people. In addition to being inhumane, it's just nonsensical, because AI operates in the world of digital technologies.
  author: Bret Taylor
    type: Person
    job title: agents as a service
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-01
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/ai-will-automate-processes-not-individual-jobs-openai-board-chair-bret-taylor/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-01
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The atomic unit of productivity in AI is a process, not a person.
  author: Bret Taylor
    type: Person
    job title: agents as a service
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-01
    publisher: officechai.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://officechai.com/ai/ai-will-automate-processes-not-individual-jobs-openai-board-chair-bret-taylor/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-01
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: And so now we're in a weird situation for something that is clearly a national and global, you know, general purpose technology being aggressively regulated at the state and local level.
  author: Adam Thierer
    type: Person
    job title: Adam Thierer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-01
    publisher: lawfaremedia.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lawfare-daily--adam-thierer-on-the-ai-regulatory-landscape
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-01
variable measured: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Even for those people like me who want preemption or a moratorium, it's not clear we're gonna get it.
  author: Adam Thierer
    type: Person
    job title: Adam Thierer
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-01
    publisher: lawfaremedia.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lawfare-daily--adam-thierer-on-the-ai-regulatory-landscape
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: both Claude and Codex were actually accomplishing tasks — some of which took hours — and doing them correctly.
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: both Claude and Codex were actually accomplishing tasks — some of which took hours — and doing them correctly.
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: both Claude and Codex were actually accomplishing tasks — some of which took hours — and doing them correctly.
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: both Claude and Codex were actually accomplishing tasks — some of which took hours — and doing them correctly.
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: every single hyperscaler says that demand for compute exceeds supply, and that every single hyperscaler is, in the face of stock market skepticism, announcing capex plans that blow away expectations
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Strong Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: the shortages looming by the end of the decade could dramatically curtail AI's impact and, by extension, the entire industry's revenue potential.
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Deny on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/the-chip-fly-in-the-ai-ointment/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Strong Deny
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the capex is warranted, and Anthropic and OpenAI look more durable than ever.
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the capex is warranted, and Anthropic and OpenAI look more durable than ever.
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: every single hyperscaler says that demand for compute exceeds supply, and that every single hyperscaler is, in the face of stock market skepticism, announcing capex plans that blow away expectations
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-16
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the capex is warranted, and Anthropic and OpenAI look more durable than ever.
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-16
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-01
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: while they can write infinite software thanks to AI, so can every other software company
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-01
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/microsoft-and-software-survival/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The promise of AI generally, and inference-time scaling models in particular, is that they can be ammunition; in this context, the costs — even marginal ones — will in the long run be immaterial compared to the costs of people, particularly once you factor in non-salary costs like coordination and motivation.
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2025/ais-uneven-arrival/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the history of humans is the continual creation of new jobs to be done — jobs that couldn't have been conceived of before they were obvious
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/ai-and-the-human-condition/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the history of humans is the continual creation of new jobs to be done — jobs that couldn't have been conceived of before they were obvious
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/ai-and-the-human-condition/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the history of humans is the continual creation of new jobs to be done — jobs that couldn't have been conceived of before they were obvious
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/ai-and-the-human-condition/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-23
variable measured: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI depends on data centers in the physical world, and building data centers needs permission. This gives normal people the sort of veto power over AI they didn't have in the face of globalization.
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-23
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2026/the-data-center-veto/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-01
variable measured: Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Google lost some battles but won the war in its search distribution case: the Google patronage network was deemed too important to undo.
  author: Ben Thompson
    type: Person
    job title: independent analyst
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-01
    publisher: stratechery.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stratechery.com/2025/google-remedy-decision-reasonable-remedies-the-google-patronage-network/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-24
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI models keep getting better and better
  author: Helen Toner
    type: Person
    job title: national security policy
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-24
    publisher: helentoner.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://helentoner.substack.com/p/taking-jaggedness-seriously
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-24
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI models keep getting better and better
  author: Helen Toner
    type: Person
    job title: national security policy
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-24
    publisher: helentoner.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://helentoner.substack.com/p/taking-jaggedness-seriously
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-23
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The ability to (sometimes) notice when they have made a mistake, backtrack, and retry the problem is a very general tactic.
  author: Helen Toner
    type: Person
    job title: national security policy
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-23
    publisher: helentoner.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://helentoner.substack.com/p/2-big-questions-for-ai-progress-in
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-04-23
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: But to get that kind of data at scale, you need to start with an agent that's useful enough for people to use it a lot—a threshold today's agents do not seem to have crossed.
  author: Helen Toner
    type: Person
    job title: national security policy
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-04-23
    publisher: helentoner.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://helentoner.substack.com/p/2-big-questions-for-ai-progress-in
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-24
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Gemini just couldn't click right. And also, Gemini couldn't figure out that it couldn't click right, so it blamed it on technical bugs.
  author: Helen Toner
    type: Person
    job title: national security policy
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-24
    publisher: helentoner.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://helentoner.substack.com/p/taking-jaggedness-seriously
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-08
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Rather, they emerged as a downstream consequence of general improvements in code, reasoning, & autonomy.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-08
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/mythos-glasswing/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-08
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Mythos is Anthropic's largest model, roughly 10 trillion parameters, six times the size of any previous frontier model.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-08
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/mythos-glasswing/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-08
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In testing, Mythos found a 27-year-old bug in one of the most secure operating systems ever built, & a 16-year-old vulnerability in video software that conventional tools had examined five million times.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-08
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/mythos-glasswing/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-22
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Extrapolating this trend, by late 2026, AI agents will autonomously execute 8+ hour workstreams, fundamentally changing how companies staff projects.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-22
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/2026-predictions/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-11
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: This is the jagged frontier. AI cybersecurity capability does not scale smoothly with model size, price, or generation.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-11
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/the-jagged-frontier-of-ai-security/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-22
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The data center buildout reaches 3.5% of US GDP in 2026.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-22
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/2026-predictions/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-13
variable measured: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: GPU rental prices for Nvidia's Blackwell chips hit $4.08 per hour this week, up 48% from $2.75 just two months ago.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-13
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/ai-compute-crisis-2026/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-17
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, & Oracle will spend 90% of their operating cash flow on AI data centers in 2026, up from a historical average of 40%.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-17
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/blog_post/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-22
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: For rote business tasks, agents will command a similar premium as companies factor in onboarding, recruiting, training, & management costs.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-22
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/2026-predictions/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-05
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: This week, Alibaba released Qwen3.5-9B, an open-source model that matches Claude Opus 4.1 from December 2025.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-05
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/qwen-9b-matches-frontier-models/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-15
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We're entering the golden age of AI applications.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-15
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/golden-age-of-applications/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-28
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: If AI collapses the labor side, the software budget isn't the ceiling. It's the floor.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-28
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/your-margin-is-my-software-opportunity/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-11
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: AI eliminates the marginal hire.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-11
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/marginal-hire/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-11
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The restructuring that might have happened gradually over five years happens in one quarter.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-11
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/marginal-hire/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-03-11
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Cursor, Claude Code, Copilot close the gap.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-03-11
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/marginal-hire/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-15
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: The Fable retraction shows regulatory risk.
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-15
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/golden-age-of-applications/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-15
variable measured: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: First, the US government shut down Fable access & the software ecosystem roared with many responses : Bring it back!
  author: Tomasz Tunguz
    type: Person
    job title: saas economics enterprise ai investor
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-15
    publisher: tomtunguz.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tomtunguz.com/golden-age-of-applications/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C5.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-19
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We're on the cusp of a moment where really anything is possible
  author: Alexandr Wang
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-19
    publisher: storyboard18.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.storyboard18.com/brand-makers/personal-superintelligence-is-coming-meta-chief-ai-officer-alexander-wang-announces-new-models-india-focused-ai-initiatives-90115.htm
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-02-19
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The first models will be good. And as the year goes on, I think we're going to be pushing the frontier.
  author: Alexandr Wang
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-02-19
    publisher: singjupost.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://singjupost.com/alexandr-wangs-remarks-ai-impact-summit-transcript/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-19
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Literally all the code I've written in my life will be replaced by what will be produced by an AI model.
  author: Alexandr Wang
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-19
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/09/19/alexandr-wang-ai-vibe-coding-next-bill-gates/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-13
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Fundamentally, AI data is all focused on the areas where the models are deficient. And as AI gets applied into more and more places within the economy, we're only going to find more deficiencies there.
  author: Alexandr Wang
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-13
    publisher: time.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://time.com/7296215/alexandr-wang-interview/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-19
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have the business model to support building literally hundreds of billions of dollars of compute.
  author: Alexandr Wang
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-19
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/09/19/alexandr-wang-ai-vibe-coding-next-bill-gates/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-01
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: the Chinese graph is straight up and to the right... the U.S. curve looks, roughly, flat
  author: Alexandr Wang
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-01
    publisher: csis.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.csis.org/analysis/scale-ais-alexandr-wang-securing-us-ai-leadership
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C2.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-19
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We have the business model to support building literally hundreds of billions of dollars of compute.
  author: Alexandr Wang
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-19
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/09/19/alexandr-wang-ai-vibe-coding-next-bill-gates/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-07
variable measured: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: superintelligence is inescapably a matter of national security
  author: Alexandr Wang
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-07
    publisher: arxiv.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://arxiv.org/html/2503.05628v1
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-07
variable measured: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: any state's aggressive bid for unilateral AI dominance is met with preventive sabotage by rivals
  author: Alexandr Wang
    type: Person
    job title: Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-07
    publisher: arxiv.org
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://arxiv.org/html/2503.05628v1
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-25
variable measured: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: By the end of 2027, I expect a fully operational ~2GW facility with total AI compute across all companies reaching ~90GW.
  author: Peter Wildeford
    type: Person
    job title: Peter Wildeford
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-25
    publisher: blog.peterwildeford.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://blog.peterwildeford.com/p/openai-nvidia-and-oracle-breaking
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C5.1
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: It genuinely feels to me like GPT-5.2 and Opus 4.5 in November represent an inflection point - one of those moments where the models get incrementally better in a way that tips across an invisible capability line where suddenly a whole bunch of much harder coding problems open up
  author: Simon Willison
    type: Person
    job title: developer tooling
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/simonw/status/2007904766756880848
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-31
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the length of tasks AI can do is doubling every 7 months
  author: Simon Willison
    type: Person
    job title: developer tooling
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-31
    publisher: simonwillison.net
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://simonwillison.net/2025/Dec/31/the-year-in-llms/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the models get incrementally better in a way that tips across an invisible capability line where suddenly a whole bunch of much harder coding problems open up
  author: Simon Willison
    type: Person
    job title: developer tooling
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/simonw/status/2007904766756880848
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-04-02
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: almost all of the time it does what you told it to do, which makes all of the difference
  author: Simon Willison
    type: Person
    job title: developer tooling
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-04-02
    publisher: simonwillison.net
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://simonwillison.net/2026/Apr/2/lennys-podcast/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-16
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: Here's the really bad news: we still don't know how to 100% reliably prevent this from happening.
  author: Simon Willison
    type: Person
    job title: developer tooling
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-16
    publisher: simonwillison.net
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://simonwillison.net/2025/Jun/16/the-lethal-trifecta/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-05
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: if you want people to spend $200 a month on your product, code is the thing that they will pay for
  author: Simon Willison
    type: Person
    job title: developer tooling
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-05
    publisher: heavybit.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.heavybit.com/library/podcasts/high-leverage/ep-9-the-ai-coding-paradigm-shift-with-simon-willison
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Today, Claude Code's run-rate revenue has grown to over $2.5 billion; this figure has more than doubled since the beginning of 2026.
  author: Simon Willison
    type: Person
    job title: developer tooling
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: x.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://x.com/simonw/status/2022044549733056861
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the AI story has just begun
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/11/49049716/cathie-wood-pushes-back-on-bubble-narrative-says-ai-boom-has-just-begun-and-were-in-the-first-inning
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We are in the first inning
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/11/49049716/cathie-wood-pushes-back-on-bubble-narrative-says-ai-boom-has-just-begun-and-were-in-the-first-inning
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: What once was the cap in spending seems to have become a floor now that the AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and multiomics sequencing platforms are ready for prime time.
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: thestreet.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.thestreet.com/economy/cathie-wood-sends-blunt-3-word-message-on-stock-outlook-in-2026
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-01-01
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the most powerful capital spending cycle in history
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-01-01
    publisher: thestreet.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.thestreet.com/economy/cathie-wood-sends-blunt-3-word-message-on-stock-outlook-in-2026
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Yet on the consumer side, it is flourishing
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/11/49049716/cathie-wood-pushes-back-on-bubble-narrative-says-ai-boom-has-just-begun-and-were-in-the-first-inning
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-23
variable measured: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: They're willing to pay $20 a month. Some are willing to pay $200 a month, and those who are replacing PhDs, they're willing to pay $2,000 a month or more
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-23
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/09/23/cathie-wood-ark-invest-ai-industry-big-four-openai-anthropic-gemini-xai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: restructure and transform completely
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/11/49049716/cathie-wood-pushes-back-on-bubble-narrative-says-ai-boom-has-just-begun-and-were-in-the-first-inning
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-09-23
variable measured: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: those who are replacing PhDs, they're willing to pay $2,000 a month or more
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-09-23
    publisher: fortune.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://fortune.com/2025/09/23/cathie-wood-ark-invest-ai-industry-big-four-openai-anthropic-gemini-xai/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-25
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: U.S. commercial business was up 123% last quarter
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-25
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/11/49049716/cathie-wood-pushes-back-on-bubble-narrative-says-ai-boom-has-just-begun-and-were-in-the-first-inning
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-14
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI could create a $13 trillion opportunity in the software industry by 2030.
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-14
    publisher: fool.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/14/cathie-wood-thinks-ai-will-create-a-13-trillion-so/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-09
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: History shows that new technologies create many more jobs than they displace.
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-09
    publisher: sahmcapital.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/cathie-wood-sharers-her-take-on-chatbots-and-robots-taking-human-jobs-well-see-more-people-taking-risks-2025-06-09
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-09
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We do not think that this time will be different.
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-09
    publisher: sahmcapital.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/cathie-wood-sharers-her-take-on-chatbots-and-robots-taking-human-jobs-well-see-more-people-taking-risks-2025-06-09
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-06-09
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We'll see more people taking risks on themselves
  author: Cathie Wood
    type: Person
    job title: ARK Invest CEO
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-06-09
    publisher: sahmcapital.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/cathie-wood-sharers-her-take-on-chatbots-and-robots-taking-human-jobs-well-see-more-people-taking-risks-2025-06-09
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-29
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think we are in for a wild ride.
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-29
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/29/cognitions-scott-wu-says-ai-coding-agents-shouldnt-replace-humans/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-14
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: 67% of its PRs are now merged vs 34% last year
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-14
    publisher: cognition.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://cognition.ai/blog/devin-annual-performance-review-2025
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-19
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Devin is also doing a lot of the more repetitive, tedious tasks that come up often in engineering work – migrations, modernisations, refactors, version upgrades, or testing and documentation.
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-19
    publisher: stripe.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-19
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Devin is a very different paradigm of what I would call an async experience, where you have an agent and you delegate a task.
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-19
    publisher: stripe.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-14
variable measured: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: 67% of its PRs are now merged vs 34% last year
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-14
    publisher: cognition.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://cognition.ai/blog/devin-annual-performance-review-2025
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-19
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Everyone talks about Jevons paradox and how it relates to AI. Nowhere is that more true than in software, because we never seem to run out of demand for more code and more software.
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-19
    publisher: stripe.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-14
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: working in engineering teams at thousands of companies, including Goldman Sachs, Santander, and Nubank
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-14
    publisher: cognition.ai
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://cognition.ai/blog/devin-annual-performance-review-2025
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-19
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Everyone talks about Jevons paradox and how it relates to AI. Nowhere is that more true than in software, because we never seem to run out of demand for more code and more software.
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-19
    publisher: stripe.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: resolved

Observation
variable measured: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: now we're talking about the entirety of knowledge work, and perhaps the entirety of physical work as well
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    publisher: cheekypint.substack.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://cheekypint.substack.com/p/cognition-ceo-scott-wu-on-acquiring
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.7
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-29
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We've never thought about it as replacing humans. I know it's like a scenario, folks have said these things. It has never been our view.
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-29
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/29/cognitions-scott-wu-says-ai-coding-agents-shouldnt-replace-humans/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-19
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think we will have way more software engineers, not fewer.
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-19
    publisher: stripe.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-19
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Everyone talks about Jevons paradox and how it relates to AI. Nowhere is that more true than in software, because we never seem to run out of demand for more code and more software.
  author: Scott Wu
    type: Person
    job title: coding agent founder operator
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-19
    publisher: stripe.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-11-28
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: 2026 will be just another year of the Roaring 2020s
  author: Ed Yardeni
    type: Person
    job title: Yardeni Research president
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-11-28
    publisher: investing.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/2026-will-be-just-another-year-of-the-roaring-2020s-ed-yardeni-4381645
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-16
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: the productivity benefits will cascade down to the rest of the S&P 500, keeping our "Roaring 2020s" scenario very much alive
  author: Ed Yardeni
    type: Person
    job title: Yardeni Research president
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-16
    publisher: openingbelldailynews.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/p/stock-market-outlook-big-tech-spending-ai-arms-race-magnificent-nvidia-apple
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-03-18
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: AI capital spending will tumble along with the profit margins on AI systems
  author: Ed Yardeni
    type: Person
    job title: Yardeni Research president
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-03-18
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44371661/ai-bubble-bursting-magnificent-7s-profit-margins-face-pressure-as-capital-spending-can-tumble-in-2025
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-12-16
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The integration of AI into the broader economy will boost productivity, subdue unit labor costs, and widen profit margins for S&P 500 companies
  author: Ed Yardeni
    type: Person
    job title: Yardeni Research president
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-12-16
    publisher: openingbelldailynews.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/p/stock-market-outlook-big-tech-spending-ai-arms-race-magnificent-nvidia-apple
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-07
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We disagree with the widely-held notion that AI is a net job killer.
  author: Ed Yardeni
    type: Person
    job title: Yardeni Research president
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-07
    publisher: yardeniquicktakes.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/productivity-booms-as-labor-market-shows-signs-of-revival/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-07
variable measured: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: In our opinion, AI will create jobs on balance.
  author: Ed Yardeni
    type: Person
    job title: Yardeni Research president
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-07
    publisher: yardeniquicktakes.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/productivity-booms-as-labor-market-shows-signs-of-revival/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2026-05-07
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Humans will use AI to achieve greater output at lower cost, creating a wealthier society that needs more and newer types of human labor.
  author: Ed Yardeni
    type: Person
    job title: Yardeni Research president
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-05-07
    publisher: yardeniquicktakes.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/productivity-booms-as-labor-market-shows-signs-of-revival/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-30
variable measured: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Over the last few months we have begun to see glimpses of our AI systems improving themselves. The improvement is slow for now, but undeniable. Developing superintelligence is now in sight.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-30
    publisher: meta.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.meta.com/superintelligence/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-30
variable measured: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: The rest of this decade seems likely to be the decisive period for determining the path this technology will take.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-30
    publisher: meta.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.meta.com/superintelligence/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C1.1
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-01-01
variable measured: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of midlevel engineer that you have at your company that can write code.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-01-01
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/startups/25/01/43196923/ai-can-write-the-code-zuckerberg-says-metas-midlevel-engineers-earning-six-figures-may-soon-be-replaced
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.2
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-01-01
variable measured: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: a lot of the code in our apps and including the AI that we generate is actually going to be built by AI engineers instead of people engineers.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-01-01
    publisher: benzinga.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.benzinga.com/startups/25/01/43196923/ai-can-write-the-code-zuckerberg-says-metas-midlevel-engineers-earning-six-figures-may-soon-be-replaced
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C1.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-14
variable measured: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We're also going to invest hundreds of billions of dollars into compute to build superintelligence.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-14
    publisher: datacenterdynamics.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/meta-to-invest-hundreds-of-billions-of-dollars-into-compute-to-build-superintelligence-with-several-multi-gw-data-center-clusters/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-14
variable measured: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: We're also building Hyperion, which will be able to scale up to 5 GW over several years.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-14
    publisher: datacenterdynamics.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/meta-to-invest-hundreds-of-billions-of-dollars-into-compute-to-build-superintelligence-with-several-multi-gw-data-center-clusters/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C2.1
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-10-29
variable measured: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?
value: Strong Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think that it's the right strategy to aggressively frontload building capacity so that way we're prepared for the most optimistic cases.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-10-29
    publisher: tickertrends.io
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Strong Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Strong Hold on the question: Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://tickertrends.io/transcripts/META/Q3-earnings-transcript-2025
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Strong Hold
keywords: C2.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-01
variable measured: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: I think it'd be one of the most important and valuable AI systems that gets built.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-01
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2025/05/07/mark-zuckerbergs-ai-ad-tool-sounds-like-a-social-media-nightmare
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.0
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-01
variable measured: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: any business can come to us, say what their objective is — we get new customers to do this thing, or sell these things — tell us how much they're willing to pay to achieve those results, connect their bank account, and then we just deliver as many results as we can.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-01
    publisher: techcrunch.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://techcrunch.com/2025/05/07/mark-zuckerbergs-ai-ad-tool-sounds-like-a-social-media-nightmare
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.3
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-05-01
variable measured: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?
value: Weak Deny
observation about: Claim
  text: I think it'd be one of the most important and valuable AI systems that gets built.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-05-01
    publisher: campaignasia.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Deny
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Deny on the question: Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.campaignasia.com/article/zuckerberg-says-ai-could-redefine-metas-ad-business/502291
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: deny
keywords: Weak Deny
keywords: C3.5
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2026-06-03
variable measured: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: Today, I want to introduce Meta Business Agent, giving every business, of any size, an agent to talk to customers and help run your operation.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2026-06-03
    publisher: cnbc.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: unresolved-live
  description: A real public source exists but is not independently fetchable right now (host AI-bot-blocking or snapshot-only). Kept, not dropped; treat as lower-confidence pending re-resolution.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/meta-business-agent-is-zuckerberg-latest-effort-to-diversify-from-ads.html
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C3.6
source status: unresolved-live

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-30
variable measured: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: As recently as 200 years ago, 90% of people were farmers growing food to survive.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-30
    publisher: meta.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.meta.com/superintelligence/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.0
source status: resolved

Observation
observation date: 2025-07-30
variable measured: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?
value: Weak Hold
observation about: Claim
  text: everyone having a personal superintelligence that helps you achieve your goals, create what you want to see in the world, experience any adventure, be a better friend to those you care about, and grow to become the person you aspire to be.
  author: Mark Zuckerberg
    type: Person
    job title: hyperscaler lab principal
  appearance: CreativeWork
    date published: 2025-07-30
    publisher: meta.com
additional property: stance classification (not a truth verdict)
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-stance-classification
  value: Weak Hold
  description: deslop.media classifies this dated statement as a Weak Hold on the question: Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028? This is a reading of the expert's position, not a verdict on whether the statement is true.
additional property: source verification status
  type: PropertyValue
  property ID: deslop-source-status
  value: resolved
  description: Independently retrievable: the quote is verifiable at a fetchable public source.
creator: deslop.media
publisher: deslop.media
is based on: https://www.meta.com/superintelligence/
disclaimer: deslop.media records what an expert said on a dated question and classifies their stance (Hold / Deny / Silent). It does not assert the statement is true and does not forecast. Read every placement as what these experts have said, not what is true.
keywords: AI scenarios
keywords: hold
keywords: Weak Hold
keywords: C4.4
source status: resolved