The AI build-out is a wager that revenue arrives before capital tires. This model does not pick the winner of that wager — it takes the wager apart. The conditions are the dials: how long capability runs, how far capex overshoots demand, how big a market AI grows into, whether work absorbs the change, how hard the state steps in. The model plays out the world those conditions describe. The inputs are uncertain, so the answer comes back as a spread, not a verdict — and in the out-years the fans, not the points, carry the claim.